A Study Of Road Transportation Safety Evaluation And Prediction Method Based On GIS Technology

Roadway traffic safety issue has become a serious problem in society. With China's reform and opening-up, the road traffic mileage shows a growing trend per year, as well as the number of road traffic crashes, which seriously threaten people's lives and property safety. It is necessary to build a reasonable traffic evaluation system and scientific prediction models, thus to develop an effective road traffic safety planning system, which can prevent and reduce crashes and protect the safety of people's lives and property.Under the circumstances, this thesis carries out intensive studies in the following aspects:(1) Systematically analyze the road traffic accident causations, discuss the road safety applications and research of geographic information technology, and explore the road traffic safety evaluation methods and prediction models, thus to developed a road traffic safety planning method and system.(2) Based on the GIS technology, use ArcGIS10for data integration and processing. Select the number of crash, the number of fatal and injury crash, crash exposure rate, fatal and injury crash exposure rate, Weighted Hazard Index and averaged hazard index to evaluate the roadway transportation risks for intersections, road segments, and traffic analysis zones. Conduct the road traffic safety analyses and develop GIS based evaluation index systems.(3) Use negative binomial regression models and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to predict crash frequencies for signalized intersections, segments, and traffic analysis zones. Therefore, construct a complete road traffic crash prediction system, integrating the three levels of points, lines, areas in road networks for road traffic safety planning programs.