Early Warning Mechanism Model Based On System Dynamics Of Network Public Opinion Research

In recent years, with the rapid development of Internet network in our country, network has been playing an important role in political and social life. Internet public opinion as a social extension of public opinion in the network, not only reflects the social reality of the various problems, but also would has a significant impact on the real world. Internet public opinion, especially the Internet hot public opinion, has features of widespread, dissemination of speed and high-impact, so it is necessary to research monitoring technology of Internet hot public opinion, also it is significant. Internet public opinion reflects the people's social and political attitudes, which is an important channel for national regulators to understand people's need. Through establishing the warning level of network public sentiment and designing the early warning indicator system, we use AHP to determine the weight of system indicators to find and control the trend of network public opinion. Based on that, we take pre-control measures to ensure social safety and stability.Based on the AHP and system dynamics, a system dynamic model for warning mechanism of online public opinion was built. From both qualitative and quantitative, the relationship between government, network media and model was analyzed. The model was simulated using VENSIM. Results show that this method can improve the accuracy of early warning of public opinion, reduce the cycle time and weaken its harmfulness by enhancing the government credibility and strengthening the supervision of network.