Study On Relationship Between Power Demand And Economic Growth In Sichuan Province

Sichuan is a powerful hydropower-based water resource province. In recent years, with the accelerated economic development and increased post-disaster reconstruction tasks, its demands for electricity have been steadily on the increase; so only the hydropower resources of poor seasonal adjustment ability inside the province and limited thermal power resource can not meet the demands in the future.The paper has concluded and analysed both domestic and foreign research methods and conclusions on relationship between energy (or electricity) and economic development; and also, it has conducted the qualitative analysis of the current situations of Sichuan's economic development and electric industry development, the analysis of electricity supply and demand as well as various factors analysis impacting electricity power consumption. With the data of Sichuan ranging from 1990 to 2009 as the sample, the paper has respectively studied on the relationship between electric power consumption of the whole society and GDP, that between the primary industry's electric power consumption and added value and that between the secondary industry's electric power consumption and added value as well as that between the tertiary industry's electric power consumption and added value by utilizing the test econometric approaches, such as Cointegration theory and Granger Causality Test, etc., ultimately figured out the long-term equilibrium relationship between electric power consumption and economic growth of various industries and verified the Granger causality between the various economic factors and electric power consumption. Through the tests of samples, it has established the multivariate analysis model of electric power consumption and economic factors of Sichuan and analysed the dynamic response characteristics between the electric power consumption and economic growth factors of Sichuan and, with the use of orthogonal impulse response function and variance decomposition, all the variables'impact degree on the electric power consumption.On the basis of qualitative analysis, the paper has drawn the following conclusions, with the combination of quantitative empirical analysis results:currently, Sichuan is facing unprecedented development opportunities and its demands for electricity are increasing; the electric power consumption of the whole society and economic aggregate of Sichuan show the trend of obvious growth and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship of the two; at the 5% significant level, there is the one-way Granger cause from electric power consumption to the economic growth of Sichuan and the two-way Granger causes from industrial electric power consumption to economic growth; the development of power industry promotes the growth of economics whereas the latter drives the consumption of electrical energy; the GDP per capita, fixed asset investment and industrial output of the whole society leaves a positive impact on the electric power consumption; in the tracking period, the electric power consumption produces obvious positive effects and the GDP per capita and fixed asset investment of the whole society makes the largest contributions.According to the research conclusions, the paper has proposed the following practical suggestions from the angle of electric power construction, economic development and technological progress:firstly, strengthen the hydropower construction investment, optimize the thermal power development, appropriately develop wind power, safely develop nuclear power, pay attention to the electric power safety and construct secure, stable, economic and clean power energy system; secondly, increase the development and utilization of new energy; thirdly, well utilize the electricity price means and guide the industry structure adjustment with the electricity price; fourthly, focus on the high-end industrial development and reduce the overall electricity energy intensity; fifthly, encourage the scientific and technological innovations and enhance the utilization efficiencies of power energy; sixthly, well conduct the DSM (demand side management).