The Quantitative Research Of Electric Power Demand Based On The Economy Growth In Shanxi Province

With the development of economy, the electricity has an important effect on national economy. Especially on the new condition that the economic develops sustainably and stably in Shaanxi province, electric industry has played an active supporting role in the healthy development of the province's economy.But with the growing demand of electricity beteen the later period of the "Eleventh Five-Year" to the "Twelfth Five-Year",mine safety, energy saving and pollutant reduction, power structure and power distribution, power grid building-up will become the bottleneck problems in Shaanxi economic development. How to maintain stable and sustainable development of national economy and the electric power industry are major strategy issue to us in the "Twelfth Five-Year". Moreover, the research on the relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth is of more important theoretic and realistic significance.In this dissertation, an intensive study concerning the electricity-economy relationship in Shaanxi province is undertaken from four perspectives which is theoretic method, empirical analysis, demand forecast and suggested countermeasures. Firstly, The single factor model which containts the Granger-Causality, Cointegration theory and the Error Correction Model is applied to analyze the relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth from the year 1985 to 2008 respectively from total quantity and separate industries. Then the multi-factors model is adopted to make further analysis on the multivariable including population, changes of industrial structure, people's living standards and electricity prices. What is next is to forecast the electric power demand of the later 7 years in Shaanxi province and analyze the results. Finally, this article propose the corresponding counter development measures according to the problems existing in Shaanxi electric power development.The results show that the totle electricity demand will develop steadily with an average annual growth of 8.8%, in which the average annual growth of the three main industries is 5.6%, 5.8% and10.3% respectively. Power structure in the "Twelfth Five-Year" is 5:67:16:12, which is more reasonable compared to the "Eleventh Five-Year" (5:70:14:11). Factors that influence electricity demand are changes of inindustrial structure and quality of life. in order to ensure sound and fast development between electricity consumption and economy growth,Shaanxi province shoud deal with 5 bottleneck problems including Power structure, econemy development, energy saving and pollutant reduction, power grid building-up and mine safety.