Research On Risk Evaluation And Allocation Of Green Building In China

The development of construction industry plays a very important pillar role in a country's economic development. However construction industry is also an industry with heavy energy consumption and heavy pollution. Therefore, in order to alleviate the conflict between economic development and resource as well as environment, construction industry must achieve sustainable development by the way of popularizing Green Building(GB). GB is more risky than other kinds of projects for its distinctness, especially in our country GB is still in its infancy, more attention should be paid to GB risk problems. In order to provide helpful references for GB risk management, this paper goes a deep research on identification, evaluation, allocation and management of GB risks in our country.Firstly, on the basis of discussing GB's connation, characteristics, objective systems and risk features in details, 62 risk factors of GB were identified after counseling experts, and then how risk factors affect the established GB objective systems was analyzed according to the source of risk subjects and risk hierarchy. The results indicated that risks related to the owner have a concentrated effect on economic objectives; the final result of GB has much to do with the behavior of the person who carries out construction tasks; and micro- and meso-risks have much effect on long-term objectives, while macro-risks have much effect on short-term objectivesSecondly, questionnaire method was adopted to collect expert's opinions on the significance and allocation preference of GB risks. Average method and fuzzy mathematical method were separately used to evaluate risk probability, risk impact and risk significance. After analyzing 20 key risks that affect the success of GB projects in our county were identified, and find that risks with serious consequence are the risks that influence long-term objectives more, in addition two kinds of risks are found to be prone to happen, one kind is the risks caused by lack of GB experience, the other kind is the risks result from GB's distinctness. Then frequency statistics method was used to analyze expert's risk allocation preference to GB. The result showed that 3 risks were unclear decided, 9 risks should be shared by multi-subjects and 50 risks should be taken by uni-subject. Meanwhile different types of expert's opinions on risk probability, risk impact and risk significance were compared by the methods of t test, variance analysis, independence test, and homogeneity of percentage, thus different views about GB risk by different experts were analyzed.At last, on the basis of expert's risk allocation preference and expert interviewing conclusions, using risk imputation principle, risk losses direct bearing principle and risk effective control principle, a risk allocation mechanism that suits our country was put foreword, which includes risk allocation, risk management advises and risk allocation circuit. One main conclusion being drawn was that GB risks, especially risks peculiar for GB, should be shared by risk effective controllers and risk imputation objective or risk losses direct bearers according to actual instance, which is more conductive to manage GB risks effectively and train qualified people for GB construction rapidly, thus guarantee the successful implementation of GB.