The Forecast Of The Energy Consumption And Carbon Emission Of Urban Traffic Based On System Dynamics

With the rapidly developing economy and the significantly rising living-standards, the traffic congestion has been increasingly serious,at the same time, under the global background of developing low carbon economy, governments began to take into consideration how to save energy, cut emission and fully satisfy the people's travel need as much as possible. Tianjin, as the economic center of Round Bohai Area as well as one of the pilot city of "Eight Provinces and Five Cities", would not only boost its economy and develop the level of urban traffic, but also shoulder the responsibility of constructing low carbon pilot city.The research about traffic energy consumption, traffic emission and traffic structure is analyzed in this paper and it is found that the traffic energy consumption is a large contributor to the total energy consumption of the city. therefore, against this backdrop, the paper aims to study the development of public traffic, the increasing of ownership of private cars and the energy consumption and emission according to Tianjin's 12th five-year plan "increase the number of buses to 18000 in the end of 12th five-year and raise the ratio of public traffic's travelling to 30%-40% to alleviate the traffic pressure and save energy as well as reduce emission". The paper employs the theories and methods of system dynamics, with the help of Vensim software, to construct model to quantitatively simulate and analyze the number of bus, taxi, private car and their corresponding energy consumption, carbon emission based on the data between 2000 year and 2009 year. The model is validated through unit check, run test, history test and sensitivity analysis. Then it, according to the 12th five-year plan, designed two scenarios: implement and not implement the plan and make eight measures to lower the oil consumption efficiency of bus and private and control the soaring number of private cars. The measures are simulated in Vensim software.Finally, through comparisons and contrasts among the different results in two scenarios, it is concluded that lowering the energy consumption efficiency, increasing the number of buses and controlling the surge of private car would not only accomplish the planned goal, but also get a minimum energy consumption and carbon emission. It is also suggested that the government should encourage people to take public transport as their first choice, at the same time, enhance the operating efficiency and capabilities, restrain the quickly rising quantity of private cars, eliminate the high fuel-consuming vehicles, and stimulate the R&D of new energy cars and hybrid vehicles...