A Study On Low-carbon Consumption Potentiality Of Beijing Urban Residents

Low-carbon consumption patterns must be considered urder the pressure of environment and economic development. Under this background, Beijing urban residents’consumption carbon emssion (direct emission and indirect emission included) from1988to2010was chosen to analyze the abatement potential.First, the emissions were been calculated, then Gray Relational Analysis and Expanded KAYA identity were used to explore the relationship our study sbjucts(direct emission and indirect emission) and their factors, the forecast in the next20years were based on Secnario Analysis and Gray forecast method, the experience of developed countries were concluded at last. Main conclusions are as below:(1)The growth rate of total emission was14.23%. The indirect consumption carbon emission account for more than90%of total carbon emission. The direct one’s growth rate is78%.(2) The factors having a highest Grey correlation degree with the direct consumption carbon emission are total homes, public traffic condition and the per capita residential area. Intensity of carbon emission contributes89.4%of indirect consumption carbon emission, followed by family size, average consumption, total homes and consumption structure.(3) To describe the consumption structure, traditional consumption fields can be classified into three as:Project1:food, cloths, housing and household facilities and services; Project2:traffic and communicating, culture education and entertainment; Project3:health care;(4) Compared with the result of GM(1,1), these four scenarios(standard scenario, policy scenario, low-carbon scenario and intensified scenario) accout about30%,19%,17%and12%.Combined with the experience of developed countrise and quantitative analysis, legally bound, technological progress, development of low carbon community, rationalization of public transportation and optimize the consumption structure are what we should do to carry out the reduction work.