Research On Global Tanker Market Prosperity Index

Under the influence of the volatile oil demand and oil tanker supply,the global tanker market always runs in cycle. Through the monitoring andanalysis of the prosperity of the global tanker market, we can know moreabout the present and the future of the global tanker market. By forecastingthe market trend more correctly, the government can regulate the marketmore timely, and the market participants can have a deeper insight on themarket, make better decisions and avoid more risks.This thesis includes four parts: introduction of theory of the DiffusionIndices and the Composite Indices; analyzing the global tanker marketcycles and the conditions that affecting the business, confirming that anProsperity Indices System of the global tanker market is reasonable andpractical. Based on the economic theory, the global tanker marketcharacteristics and the relative professors’ opinions,26indicators areselected from four levels: supply, demand, revenue and cost of globaltanker market. And by using Time difference correlation analysis and othercategorizing methods, these indicators are classified into three types: theLeading, the Coincident and the Lagging Indicators. Then using theoptimized Diffusion Index methods and Factors Analysis methods, thethesis compiles the Diffusion Index and the Composite Index of the globaltanker market. Then the thesis compares the Index System with empiricalglobal tanker market of the last five years. Based on the global tankermarket Prosperity Index, a warning and forecasting system of the market isconstructed.The conclusions of the thesis are the followings: clear timedifferences exist among the indicators of the global tanker market and theindicators can be classified into the Leading, the Coincident and the Lagging ones. And through compiling the Diffusion Index and theComposite Index of the global tanker market by the prosperity indexmethod, we can analyze and forecast the market more timely and correctly.