Research On Cyclical Fluctuations Of Real Estate And Countermeasures In Fujian

Just like cyclical fluctuations in macro economy operation process, the realestate industry has the same objective phenomenon in its own process. The operationcharacteristics of real estate cyclical fluctuations differentiate from regions toregions and from time to time. The real estate industry in Fujian province, affectedby the changing internal and external factors, must own its unique operation rule andfluctuation cycle development characteristics.In this paper, the real estate in Fujian province is chosen as the research object,the data are from Fujian calendar year statistical yearbook. There are two parts in themain body of this paper, including an empirical analysis and factors analysis oncyclical fluctuations of the real estate in Fujian province. Firstly, in the empiricalanalysis, this paper takes an review of the overseas and domestic research status andtheoretical foundation, and then uses the data from Fujian statistical yearbook andthree empirical analysis method, including single index, diffusion index andprincipal component synthesis index, reference to the index system andmeasurement method by domestic scholars, to study cyclical fluctuations of the realestate in Fujian province. Secondly, in the factors analysis, this paper classifies thefactors, and takes measurement analysis method of ADF test, VAR model, Grangertest, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis underconsideration of the data availability to determine the relationship between thefactors and cyclical fluctuations of the real estate in Fujian province, and to get theexact response of cyclical fluctuations to the changing factors, and to evaluate thecontributions of endogenous variables when facing the different structural impact inVAR model.Based on the above analysis, the conclusions are as follows.Conclusion1: The real estate industry in Fujian province do exist cyclicalfluctuations. It experiences roughly five different lengths from1991to2009, atabout time span cycle of3to5years. The first cycle for1993to1996waved to thetop in1994and followed to the bottom in1996. The second cycle for1996to1998waved to the top in1997and followed to the bottom in1998. The third cycle for1998to2002waved to the top in2001and followed to the bottom in2002. Thefourth cycle for2002to2005waved to the top in2004and followed to the bottomin2005. The fifth cycle for2005to2008waved to the top in2007and followed to the bottom in2008. Since1996, the cyclical fluctuation has been more stable, and along expansion stage and short shrink stage has appeared, which shows that, the realestate industry in Fujian province present better running trajectory, and the realestate industry is gradually mature.Conclusion2:(1) The results of Granger test analysis indicate that the realestate market supply and demand factors and macroeconomic factors can not explaincyclical fluctuations of the real estate in Fujian province well, the causing of cyclicalfluctuations of the real estate in Fujian province is mainly due to psychologicalfactors and urbanization process factors.(2) The results of impulse response analysisindicate that, there is obvious short term and strong positive long-term effects of theresponse of cyclical fluctuations of the real estate to the real estate market supplyand demand factors and macroeconomic factors in Fujian province. While thepsychological factors have stronger short-term and weaker long-term effectsinfluencing cyclical fluctuations of the real estate. But there isn't any explicitrelationship between the urbanization process factors and cyclical fluctuations of thereal estate.(3) The results of variance decomposition analysis indicate that the realestate market supply and demand factors and macroeconomic factors immediately,urbanization process factors less than1period, psychological factor3period lag toaffect cyclical fluctuations of the real estate in Fujian province.Based on the above analysis results, for the goal of how to deal with real estatecycle fluctuations and promoting the sustainable development of real estate industryin Fujian province. This paper puts forward some enterprise measures under theconclusion of the empirical analysis, and proposes some correspondingcountermeasures on the basis of the conclusions of the real estate market supply anddemand factors, macro economic factors, psychological factors and urbanizationfactors.