Study Of Bidding Decision-making In Transformer Project

With the gradual standardization of our country transformer market trade practices,the development of transformer technology and the further spread of exchanges with foreign countries after joining WTO , domestic transformer manufacturers are faced with unprecedented press. If transformer manufacturers want to win better projects in intense competition, it depends on not only the company's design,manufacturing capabilities and business ability but also the comprehensive evaluation of project value and the exact computation of bidding and pricing by bidding decision-makers, that concerns the bidding of transformer project prices and the survival and development of transformer manufacturing enterprises in the future. If transformer manufacturing enterprises want to hold the opportunity, it is very important for defeating our competitors in competitive bidding. So Scientific and reasonable bidding decision-making is crucial to win bid and elevate earnings.This thesis spreads out a series of research on bidding decision-making methods. Firstly, the paper summarizes two major theory foundation stones (price theory and decision-making theory) of bidding decision-making methods. Then the main issues,realistic theory meaning and practice meaning are introduced. Secondly, transformer project bidding introduction is introduced. Then cost estimating is studied, which lays a solid foundation for the cost estimating of transformer project. Thirdly, the paper uses AHP Analysis to conduct qualitative analysis on influence elements of bidding decision-making at pre-bidding stage and uses AHP Analysis to study multiple projects and select the transformer project which is of high integrative utility value. Finally, this paper analyses the limitations of traditional decision-making methods and studies the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation method that is used for bidding decision at bidding decision-making stage. Then the paper expounds Monte Carlo simulation method which is used for bidding decision. According to the character of transformer project and the history bidding prices, the paper simulates probability density function of all manufacturers in the bidding. The probability density function is repeatedly simulated many times and the result is analyzed.Through the research about the bidding of transformer project, the bidding theory of transformer project will become more standardized and transparent. The paper not only enriches and expands the bidding theory of transformer project in the application, but also makes the bidding of transformer project become more efficient. The paper uses AHP Analysis to study transformer projects and eventually figures out the highest comprehensive score. Through Monte Carlo simulation method, the bidding price function is repeatedly simulated many times, the result is analyzed and high score price can be gained. Lastly, high probability and high score are gained through computation, which provides support in decision-making.