Research On The Dynamic Structure Of Hainan Inbound Tourist Source Country In Recent Years

With the continuous development of tourism,the tourism industry has gradually played an increasingly important role in the development of the national economy,and inbound tourism has gradually become an important way for China's foreign exchange to generate revenue.The number of overnight visitors was 62.9 million,and the international tourism income was 127.1 billion.As an international tourist destination,Hainan Province is not only an important way to build an international tourist island,but also an important starting point for the construction of a free trade port(district).Therefore,The research and prediction of the structure of Hainan's inbound source countries in recent years,can support the construction of international tourist islands and free trade ports(regions)in Hainan with empirical data.From the research content,the existing research on the structure of inbound tourist source countries mainly focuses on the source market,the source market structure,tourist destinations and inbound tourists.From the research method,the existing research Mainly in the study of the structure of the country of origin of the country of origin,such as the degree of affinity,SSM,and geographic concentration index.Selects the SPSS optimal index smoothing model for Hainan's future inbound tourist source country market.The data forecast,combined with the current market situation of Hainan inbound tourist source countries,proposes optimization suggestions.The mainly part analyzes the 2010-2017 Hainan inbound tourist source country by using the data of the inbound source country,the number of inbound tourists and the tourist destination and product supply data of the source country,using the standard coefficient,coefficient of variation and market competition.Structural space-time evolution characteristics.Prediction models given in SPSS through empirical research,and finally selects the optimal forecasting model to predict the amount of overnight visitors in Hainan's future inbound tourist source countries.Based on the dynamic analysis and data forecast of the Hainan inbound tourist source country in the previous chapters,and proposes optimization suggestions for the problems existing in the development of Hainan inbound tourist source countries,and the following conclusions are drawn:(1)From 2010 to 2017,areas with high levels of inbound tourism development in Hainan gradually formed a band scale in the eastern coastal zone,and the level of the inbound tourism development level gradually decreased from east to west.The main inbound tourist flow gathered in Haikou and Sanya.The inter-annual variation in inbound tourist flow in other cities and counties is large.(2)From the perspective of the influence of Hainan inbound development control factors,the level of openness,traffic accessibility,economic development,and inbound tourism development expenditure policies are the four major factors that will affect Hainan's inbound tourist source market in the future.Moreover,the level of opening to the outside world and the level of economic development are constantly rising.The level of opening up,transportation accessibility,and economic development are also key factors in the formation of China's world tourism destinations.(3)In terms of the number and distribution of tourist source countries,the structure of Hainan's inbound tourist source countries has undergone a process of evolution from less to more,and from scattered to agglomerated.Basically,Asia has formed,with Europe and the Americas as the two wings.Spatial distribution of tourist sources.(4)Judging from the analysis of market order and market competition,the structure of the inbound tourist source market has changed.The Taurus market is supported by Russia,South Korea,New Overtime and the United States.It relies on the Russian market the most,the single risk of the market becomes higher,and the thin dog market continues to expand.(5)Judging from the future data forecast of the source country market,the Hainan inbound source country market generally shows a downward trend,and will face greater downward pressure in the future.With the continuous advancement of international tourist arrivals and the construction of free trade zones(ports),the supply-side reform of Hainan's inbound source markets also needs to be deepened,especially in terms of tourism accessibility,and it is necessary to vigorously improve transportation accessibility and further simplify export.Immigration procedures expand visa-free countries,while improving the level of local tourism service reception and tourism infrastructure.The geographical distribution of Hainan's inbound tourist source countries is unevenly distributed,the inbound tourism market is unevenly developed and the scale is wide,and there is a multi-polar development trend.At the same time,the market of Hainan's inbound tourist source countries generally shows a downward trend,and Hainan's inbound tourist source market will face greater downward pressure in the future.The Hainan government should introduce policies such as incentives and subsidies for inbound tourism to guide the optimization of the market structure of inbound tourists.