China Natural Rubber Resources Supply Security Researches Under The Situation Of Globalization

Natural rubber is a kind of important industrial and strategic material like steel and petroleum. The consumption of natural rubber in China exceeded Japan in2000and USA in2001, and China became the largest natural rubber consumption country in the world. As a fast growing consumer, China is becoming more and more dependent on imported natural rubber. The self-supporting ratio in China is declining year after year, and which is threatening the natural rubber supply security directly. The problem of China natural rubber supply security must be considered from a global viewing angle. More natural rubber should be produced, and the gap between production and consumption should be reduced, then the imported quantity of natural rubber can be limited to reasonable level.This research begins with the production, consumption, trade and stock situation both in the world and in Asia, and the situation of China natural rubber supply security is discussed, and then the factors affecting it are carefully analyzed. And two methods of analysis are applied, including comparative advantages and Vague adjustability optimization, to analyze the natural rubber comparative advantages and optimized species in the three China natural rubber dominant producing areas. Finally the measures and policy suggestions towards China natural rubber supply security are brought forward.This research is divided into six parts. The first part is concerned about natural rubber situation of production, consumption, trade and stock; the situation includes both world and Asia, points out both the production and the consumption of world natural rubber are going up, but the rising speed of consumption is comparatively higher than that of production, so the supply remains tight. The second part an analysis of China natural rubber supply security situation, and mention that China will be the largest consuming country of natural rubber in the world. The third part is a factor analysis of China natural rubber supply security, shows that natural and scientific innovative factors are directly affected the production and quality of natural rubber, price and policy are incentives to natural rubber production, food security and competitive crops are hindrances to natural rubber production. The fourth part is a comparative advantages analysis of competitive tropical crops with natural rubber, shows that the comparative advantages in Hainan and Yunnan are dominant, while poor in Guangdong among the three China natural rubber dominant producing areas. The fifth part is an application of Vague adjustability optimization on natural rubber species, points out that Chinese species are excellent in different natural rubber plantation area suitable for large scale plantation in China. Finally, the measures and policy suggestions towards China natural rubber supply security are brought forward.This research found that the natural rubber stock was decreasing fast globally, and the situation between supply and demand was very tight. As a fast growing consumer, though facing all kinds of restrictions, China need to keep natural rubber self-supply to a certain level and import the rest. Upon the comparative advantages analysis of competitive tropical crops with natural rubber, shows that the comparative advantages in Hainan and Yunnan are dominant, while poor in Guangdong among the three China natural rubber dominant producing areas. The application of Vague adjustability optimization on natural rubber species, points out that Chinese species are excellent in different natural rubber plantation area suitable for large scale plantation in China.