The Empirical Research Of Ecological Risk Based On The Ecological Footprint Model

The core issue of sustainable development is to measure if the condition of the human is within the capacity of ecological system. Ecological footprint model could answer this question through estimating the utilization of nature.The improved ecological footprint model, a novel ecological risk analysis method, was used to research the ecological risks in this paper. Correcting the equivalence factor and taking the time series ecological footprint as the tool, the social economic system and ecological system and their dynamic interaction change as the basis, the entropy method and exponential curve fitting as the computing method, we research on ecological risk.Take Gansu province for example, the results show that with the development of economy, the disturbance to the ecological system also increase, the risk index came to41.21in2008if we take the risk index in1949as1. It means that the ecological system is safe and stable, bigger number means bigger danger. The ecological footprint of renewable resource will be more than ecological carrying capacity in Gansu province in2028, the risk index will come to136.64at that time.Grading the ecological risk degree and the development state by the idea of ecological footprint and the prediction data of Gansu province. The results show that the ecological risk attribute state was for safety before1996, mild risk form1996to2014, moderate risk form2014to2022, severe risk form2022to2028, the ecological risk degree will get too hot after2028. The corresponding development states are sustainable, mild unsustainable, moderate unsustainable, severe unsustainable and serious unsustainable.