Study On Forecast And Factor Decomposition Of Carbon Emissions About Chinese Large-scale Public Buildings

Along with the development of problem of greenhouse gasses,environmental problems should still be given more attention immediatelyas economy develops. The holding of the United Nations climate conferencein Copenhagen2009, brought to unprecedented attention to problem ofgreenhouse gasses worldwide. As a responsible country, China set areduction goal which means that Carbon emission per GDP will reduce40%-50%on the basis of2005.Currently, China is experiencing a largest scale and fastesturbanization to this day. Along with this urbanization, the scale oflarge-scale building will increase rapidly. But the problems oflarge-scale building, such as high-energy-consumption and high-emission,are becoming more and more serious. The potentiality of reduction andenergy conversation is considerately huge, which is the consensus of mostof scholar. In order to implement scientific outlook on development deep,achieve to harmony development of economy and environment, it is evitableto reduce omission and energy consumption of large-scale building. On onehand, we should propose to reduce omission and energy consumption oflarge-scale building. On the other hand, we should study the factor thatmay affect omission and energy consumption of large-scale building deep,and then forecast it reasonably, discuss its potentiality, cost and path.So we can reduce emission and energy consumption of large-scale buildingwith no influence on our economy growth.This paper considers large-scale building as research object, usingthe related data during1996-2008, and implement long-run (to2050)forecast to emission, potentiality of reduction and cost, then analyze the factors which may affect Carbon emission. Finally, the paper presentsthe path for reduction. The content can be divided into three parts:Part one, forecast the Carbon emission of large-scale building. Firstof all, it is concluded that the energy consumption of large-scalebuilding in China per area is higher than Japan while lower than USA basedon the comparation among China, Japan and USA. But rate of growth (meanvalue is20.9%) is much higher than Japan and USA. Secondly, using scenarioanalysis, implement long-run (2009-2050) forecast to three paths: path1means keeping current energy consumption level to predict Carbonemission; path2means predicting Carbon emission drawing on experienceof developed countries; path3means predicting Carbon emission under lowenergy consumption. Take path1as benchmark, forecasts the potentialityand cost of path2and path3. We conclude that path3’s potentialityis most, so large-scale building in our country should develop accordingpath3.Part two, implement decomposition analysis to Carbon emission oflarge-scale building. Based on Kaya equation, using LMDI factordecomposition method, this paper concludes that the main factors whichaffect Carbon emission of large-scale building are economy development,scale of large-scale building and technology.Part three, implement path analysis to reduction of Carbon emissionof large-scale building. Combining the results of factor decompositionwith current situation of large-scale building, presents reduction pathbased on policy support, spread of technology of reduction, and raise ofrealization in energy reduction.