The Influential Factors Of Carbon Emission And The Policy Simulation Study On Emission Modes In China And Kazakhstan

China and the countries along the Belt and Road,especially the Central Asian countries,have a wide range of economic and energy cooperation,but at the cooperation of emission reduction,they are still in the exploration stage.As the pioneer of "Green Belt and Road" policy,Kazakhstan is a key point in the implementation of this concept.If the cooperation experience of China-Kazakhstan can be radiated to countries along the Belt and Road,it will promote the economic development and environmental protection win-win situation among the countries.Based on the economic,population,energy,and carbon em issions data of China and Kazakhstan from 1992 to 2017,this paper establishes a LMDI factor decomposition model on the extended kaya identities to analyze the factors affecting carbon emissions in China and Kazakhstan.It also predicts the total carbon emissions of China and Kazakhstan in different situations from 2020 to 2030 to discuss the achievement of emission reduction targets in the two countries,and explore the emission reduction space between China and Kazakhstan.Finally,the article puts forward suggestions for the reduction cooperation between the two countries from the perspective of strategy and state mechanism.The main findings show that:(1)From 1992 to 2017,economic activity factors were the most influential factors on China's total carbon dioxide emissions,and the largest factor contributing to the increase in carbon dioxide emissions in Kazakhstan;energy intensity factors were the most influential to Kazakhstan's total carbon dioxide emissions,and the most effective factor in reducing carbon dioxide emissions in China.The energy structure factors of the two countries have little impact on carbon dioxide emissions,but there is a rebound.(2)From 2020 to 2030,the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions from China and Kazakhstan will continue to increase.The absolute value of China's carbon dioxide emission reduction space is higher than that of Kazakhstan,while the relative value of Kazakhstan's emission reduction space is higher than that of China,but the reduction space of both countries is more than 25%.China can achieve emission reduction targets under general emission reduction situations,and Kazakhstan will achieve emission reduction targets in the case of strong emission reductions.(3)The green economy development policy is the best policy for China and Kazakhstan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.The green population policy and the energy intensity optimization policy have similar effects on the carbon dioxide emissions in China and Kazakhstan.The energy intensity optimization policy is better with the national conditions of the two countries.The energy structure optimization policy has similar effects on the carbon dioxide emissions,and the impact is weak.