The Research Of The Influence Of Guangxi High Speed Railway Operation Against Highway Passenger Transport And Its Countermeasures

In order to study the influence of Guangxi high speed railway operation against the highway passenger transport and its countermeasures, this paper take Nanning-Guangzhou high speed railway for example, predict the changes of the distribution rate of passenger flow by means of the multinomial logit (ML) model that based on the disaggregate type,analyse the effect of Nanning-Guangzhou high speed railway operation to its transport corridor highway passenger transport, then put forward the countermeasures of Guangxi highway passenger transport deal with high speed railway competition.There are the main study contents:(1)Analyse the advantage and disadvantage of various mode of transportation by comparing their technical and economic characteristics and using the Michael Porter’s Five Forces model to analyze their market competitiveness.(2) Analyse the influence of traveler, travel and transport characteristic factors on choosing trip mode of traveler and realize the expectation of traveler choose highway and high speed railway passenger transport to travel by means of the revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) survey.(3)Choose the ML model that based on the disaggregate type to predict distribution rate of passenger flow, structure the generalized cost utility function based on the variables of mode of transportation service characteristics, such as economy, convenience, comfort, speed and safety, etc, using TransCAD4.5to demarcate utility function coefficient on the basis of the survey data. Predict the railway distribution rate of passenger flow from34.21%rise to73.81%, the highway distribution rate of passenger flow fall down from46.54%to17.26%and the predicted highway passenger flow decrease by62.18%than the current in Nanning-Guangzhou transport corridor after Nanning-Guangzhou high speed railway operated in2014.(4)Combine the SWOT analysis with development strategic choice of highway passenger transport, we can put forward the countermeasures of highway passenger transport industry to cope with the high speed railway competition as follows, changing the development ideas, improving management control, allocating transport capacity reasonably, adjusting the line layout,using marketing tools deftly and so on.The study shows that high speed railway operation has a great influence on highway passenger transport in the transport corridor, lead to highway distribution rate of passenger flow fall down sharply, what’s more, the enterprise management benefit is reduced gradually. Therefore, Guangxi highway passenger transport industry should take some strategies to deal with high speed railway competition, that it can reduce the impact of high speed railway operation to highway passenger transport.