Study On Daily Maintenance Quantities Prediction And Maintenance Decisions In Shen-Zhen Areas

At present, highway development is moving from large-scale construction phase tomaintenance phase in china. In the highway maintenance phase, if we want to achievescientific, efficient and economical maintenance operations, to ensure smooth highway, tomeet both road users and road managers’ demand, preventive maintenance management isvery necessary.Firstly, this article investigated the pavement structure, traffic and environmentalconditions in Shenzhen city, expanded the unity of environmental conditions and diseaseanalysis and summarized the pavement common disease types and causes in the area.Secondly, this article investigated and analyzed the pavement performance of five roadsin different road age; introduced common exponential model at home and abroad; fitted thepavement performance and established the performance prediction model of DR, IRI, RD,SFC and PQI in Shenzhen.Analysis on daily maintenance of road with detailed pavement conditions test data.Combining with historical technical condition data of the investigation section, exponentialdecay curve between each index and was established. Two kinds of pavement damages wereconsidered to be. And then this paper estimated the two kinds of damages range. Relationshipof PCI-λ was fitted based on pavement damage condition, management and maintenancedepartment could estimate daily maintenance repairs by assigning PCI.This paper established the prediction model with the semi-parametric regression methodsfor the road lacking of regular pavement conditions test data. The daily traffic volume, dailyheavy vehicle was qualified parametric part, and road age was qualified non-parametric partused the semi-parametric regression model, which reflected the flexibility of the predictionmodel. The maintenance rate prediction model was established to provide a basis for dailymaintenance cost analysis.At last, the best maintenance time of preventive maintenance of the west ofShenzhen-Shantou highway was analyzed with the benefit-cost method based on thepavement performance degradation model, combining the best selection of conservation measures best maintenance decision should be make.At the same time, this paper established the ideal point and negative ideal point modelfor multiple constraints conditions. Take a maintenance department for example, analyzed theoptimization of conservation programs under the restriction of the funds, personnel, policyand so on.