Study On Passenger Volume Forecasting And Scale Determination Of Urban Rail Transfer Station

With the development urbanization level, supply capacity of existing urban public transport facilities has become more and more unable to meet the increasing travel demand. Therefore, many cities begin to consider urban rail transport system, which has faster speed, larger traffic volume and higher punctuality rate. However, due to the particularity of rail transit system, the cost of its construction is massive. The scale of transfer sation directly affects the overall cost of the entire system, because it is the major distributing center and intermediate transit point. So, how to accurately control the scale of transfer station becomes an important aspect of improving service level and reducing the overall project cost.On the basis of summarizing the method on determining the scale of transfer station both home and abroad, the paper describes the role of the various facilities in rail transfer sation, analyzes the characters of different traffic models with rail transit, and illustrates the problems of our rail transfer station.The paper employs the concept of passenger volume attraction scope of transfer station, and divides it into three categories according to different traffic modes. General travel time model is built based on the analgtic hierachy process method. The passenger volume attraction scopes of transfer station are determined by the definition models. All of these works establish a good foundation for the passenger volume forcasting.A probabilistic-possibilistic route choice model is proposed by generalized Logit model, in which parameters are estimated via two methods. Reconsidering the common four-staged prediction model of traffic demand, including trip generation model and trip distribution model, a series of prediction models with respect to different passenger volume types (e.g. entering, existing and transferring) for transfer stations of rail transit based on the analysis of attracting regions, so as to provide some reference for the rational construction size.Following the above mentioned discussion and investigation, the typical sizes of transfer station facilities are discussed and improved for inside facilities (e.g. vertical elevator, automatic fare collector). Taking the Longjiang Street station (connecting Harbin Metro Line 1 & Line 5 together) as example, the proposed methods and models are verified and the analysis result shows that this transfer station should be cross platform interchange mode.