Analysis Of Unexpected Passenger Demand And Resulting Congestion In Urban Rail Transit

In China, urban rail transit plays a key role in urban public transport, and its scale increases year by year. In recent years, more and more large special events have been held in many cities, which produce a lot of unexpected passenger demand. And urban rail transit undertakes most transport task of these unexpected passenger. The unexpected passenger often shows unique time distribution, passenger flow profile pattern and passenger congestion propagation in network. So unexpected passenger brings challenges to the normal operation of the urban rail transit. This thesis proposes methods for controlling passenger congestion propagation based on the characteristics of the unexpected passenger demand.Firstly, this paper defines the concept of unexpected passenger, and analyses the structural characteristics of the Shanghai urban rail transit system by applying the complex network theory.It discusses the new characteristics of unexpected passenger in a network of urban rail transit system. On this basis, it discusses the characteristics of unexpected in terms of time distribution pattern and the calculating method for the peak unexpected passenger flow. Then flow-sectional distribution pattern is analyzed too. These results on the characteristics of unexpected passenger flow are the foundation of the passenger congestion propagation control methods.This thesis establishes a SIR model for passenger congestion propagation and applies the model analyze the different propagation scope. The result is the basis of effective way to control passenger congestion propagation.Finally, this thesis puts forward the congestion control methods based on the characteristics of urban rail transit network structure and unexpected passenger. An emergency response system is used for the organization of passenger flow and the operation of the whole rail transit system. Under emergency, every station operates according to the conditions of it, including passenger flow guidance, control organizations of every level and personnel arrangement. The regulation of line running organization in unexpected passenger period includes train formation, train routing scheme and vehicle using, etc.