Research On Grain Reserve And Cultivated Land Rotation And Fallow Scale Based On Food Security

Hong Fan’s eight political policies,food is the head of government,and food security is the cornerstone of national security and the “sacred needle” of national development;especially in the current special period such as the outbreak of the new crown epidemic,it is even more critical.However,behind the current excessive grain production and inventory levels are the increasingly prominent structural contradictions in my country’s grain,the squeezed domestic grain consumption market,and excessive financial pressure on reserves;and the continuous decline in the quality of arable land will threaten my country’s mid-to long-term food security And the sustainable development of agriculture has led to a lack of momentum for the subsequent growth of food production.The abundant grain stocks and favorable policy environment at this stage provide a good opportunity for our country to promote the strategy of "hiding grain on the ground".This study calculates the actual grain consumption in my country based on the structure(rations,feed grains,industrial grains,seed grains),and then estimates my country’s grain demand levels from 2025 to 2035 based on different nutritional goals.Under the premise of quantity forecasting,three grain storage plans under different grain inventory standards were designed,and on this basis,the scale of rotation and fallow corresponding to the three plans was continued to be calculated;finally,combined with the actual situation of my country’s arable land,the effect of the rotation and fallow pilot and The practice and experience of crop rotation and fallow at home and abroad have put forward specific suggestions to further promote the policy of crop rotation and fallow in my country.Through research,this article mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)The relationship between crop rotation and fallow and food security is opposite and unified.In the short term,crop rotation and fallow will affect the total grain output and the structure of grain production.In the long term,it will improve the overall quality of cultivated land.Thereby improving the quality of grain output,affecting the employment of farmers,etc.,have a profound impact on the grain industry.(2)Option 1: Based on the inventory consumption ratio of 17%-18%,under different energy levels,the reasonable reserve scale in 2025 is 0.85-136 million tons;in 2030,it should reserve 0.89-141 million tons of grain;2035 The total annual grain reserves should reach 0.93-147 million tons.Judging from the actual situation in 2020,the area of cultivated land that can be used for rotation and fallow in my country is 8792.79-10656.69 thousand ha.Option 2: Taking the market demand for grain sales in the main producing area for 3 months,the main sales area for 6 months,and the balance area for 4.5 months as the reserve standard,the reasonable reserve scale in 2025 is 165-247 million tons;the reserve should reach at least by 2030 172-258 million tons of grain;total grain reserves in2035 should be guaranteed 179-268 million tons.Up to 4,619.25-769.75 thousand hectares of arable land can be fallow in 2020.Plan 3: Taking 25%-30% of the inventory consumption ratio as the standard,the reasonable reserve scale in 2025 is 126-226 million tons;in 2030,ensure that the national grain reserves are within the range of 131-236 million tons;the total grain reserves in 2035 Should reach1.37-245 million tons.The maximum fallow area in 2020 is 5389.13-9157.46 thousand hectares.(3)Based on my country’s data of 1.550 billion mu of basic farmland in 2019,the three fallow schemes are integrated and analyzed.The largest fallow area in China reaches 4.47%-10.31% of the total area of basic farmland.Considering foreign experience and my country’s actual situation,it is recommended that the scale of crop rotation and fallow in my country should not exceed 9% of the total area of basic farmland.From the perspective of layout,priority should be given to areas with severe ecological degradation and tight resources and environments,such as the ecologically degraded areas in the southwest and northwest,the groundwater funnel area in the northeast of China,and the heavy metal pollution areas in the central and southern regions.