Ankang Municipality And Food Production Fitness Evaluation Of Climate Change

Global warming has imposed obvious influence on global atmospheric environment, climate, ocean currents, temperature and other climatic factors, also has serious impact on the nature, economy, society of the world. For climate change response, agriculture is the most sensitive and vulnerable filed. The stability and sustainability of agriculture with the climate change were concerned by governments and peoples. There is an important significance for making targeted adaptation measures and ensuring effectively countermeasures that studying what impacts of climate change on agriculture and how human adapt to the climate change actively.In order to quantitatively analyze the degree of climate change influencing rice and winter wheat as well as man-made adaptation in Ankang City, this paper chose the data of the annual average temperature, annual precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation from1961to2010in10meteorological stations in Ankang City, and selected the meteorological and humanistic data of the production and sowing area of rice as well as winter wheat from1971to2009. This paper analyzed the influence degree and adaptation of agriculture production by Excel, DPS, ArcGIS and other softwares. The main conclusions are as follows.(1) From1961to2010, the average temperature of Ankang City increased with0.13℃/10a. and, the warming mutation appeared in1997. At the same time, annual precipitation reduced with5.688mm/10a, with difference degree before and after temperature mutations.For spatial distribution, annual average temperature presented that the central area is high, and the northwest and southeast is low; annual precipitation was showed increasing trend from northeast to southwest. The temperature increased with1.053℃/10a in the rice growing season, which presented that the south area is high, while the west and east are the low center. The temperature growth rate of winter wheat reached2.194℃/10a, which showed that the northwest low, southeast high trend basically. Precipitation of rice growing season was more than the base year, and there is a change in every decade. It was showing southeast more and northwest less on the spatial distribution. Precipitation of winter wheat growing season was basically less than the baseline year, which showed a significant decrease, and illustrated for central and southern less, eastern and north-west more. (2) As for the degree of impact of climate change on grain production, the impact degree of temperature for rice gradually increased since the1980s; while the impact degree of precipitation showed a decrease trend; and comprehensive effect changed relatively smooth.The impact degree of temperature for winter wheat showed a gradual increasing trend; the influence degree of precipitation first increased and then decreased; the comprehensive effect was gradually increasing. Variation characteristics of the impact degree were showed that, on the one hand, rice increased with the temperature increasing, and decreased with the reduction of precipitation. On the other hand, winter wheat increased along with increasing temperature and the reduction of precipitation. From the perspective of spatial distribution, in the1980s, the impact degree of temperature on rice yield was significant than winter wheat; regional distribution was consistent in the1990s, which was opposite to state basically in the00’s. As the impact degree of precipitation, rice was greater than winter wheat in the1980s; and regional differences became smaller in the1990’s and00’s. The positive high value of precipitation influence degree of rice moved to east and south; at the same time, negative low value area gradually reduced. The characteristics of winter wheat showed that low value zone expand to the northwest, and high value area narrowed to the north, moving to the east. Positive high value area of comprehensive effect degree of rice moved to the south and east; negative low value area moved to the west. Comprehensive effect degree of winter wheat was increasing, and regional differences have become evident increasingly.(3) Interdecadal changes of adaption degree were as follows. Temperature adaption degree of rice changed relatively smooth and was in a higher level. The impact degree of temperature for winter wheat showed a apparent downward trend after1998. Precipitation adaption degree of winter wheat changed relatively smooth and stayed a higher state; while the rice changed significantly. Comprehensive adaption degree of the rice and the winter wheat were less volatile before1991, but the difference is growing afterwards. From the perspective of spatial distribution, The high center of temperature adaption degree for rice appeared in Hanbin and Hanyin, and the decreasing trend is obvious especially towards the southeast and northwest. While winter wheat showed different high and low center. The fitness of Han River Valley in the east was the highest; contrarily, the hilly areas on the south side of the valley were the lowest. Except QinBa mountain, precipitation adaption degree of rice was high (>92%). The low center of winter wheat appeared in the Hanbin, and held the gradual increasing trend to the surrounding. The lowest value of comprehensive adaption degree of rice appeared in Zhenping, while high center located in the flatland area. With Hanbin, Hanyin, Ziyang as the center, the adaption degree of winter wheat progressively increased to the east, southeast, northwest. And the overall regional differences were small, showing a higher state of adaptation.