Indian Nuclear Weapon Program And American Intelligence Estimates (1950-1974)

India has a historic and far-reaching effects of underground nuclear explosionson May18,1974. American Intelligence Community paid attention to the explosionfrom the date of the Indian nuclear program began to develop and repeatedlypredicted that India will have an explosion. However, the American IntelligenceCommunity still failed to warn of India’s first nuclear test and thus triggering a seriesof questions about the Indian unclear weapon programs and the Americanintelligences estimates.According to the relevant documents, the official concern of the United States tothe Indian nuclear energy development was started in1950, and repeatedly discussedwhether India will develop nuclear weapons. And these information demonstratedsufficient historical data for the subject of this article. In fact, American intelligenceactivities against the development of India’s nuclear weapons never stopped, justbecause of the realities and historical reasons which led to the final intelligencefailures.This paper systematically discussed the trend of development of India’s nuclearenergy on the basis of the relevant documents and other data from1950to1974, andthe basic motive, the potential of nuclear weapons, the change of nuclear policy andnuclear weapon program included in this basic trend. In addition, analyzed andsummarized the intelligence failures to the India’s explosion. Therefore, this paperfocuses on three majors. First, Indian nuclear weapon program and American concern.Second, Indian efforts for the nuclear weapon program. Third, the failure of Americanintelligences estimates.Overall, India’s explosion in May18,1974which was more characteristics of thetimes and even more historic. So, it’s really important to discuss the issue combinedwith relevant information. The development of anything must be accompanied by itsdeep historical roots. Whether it is from the perspective of national interests, or toconsider the situation of the world as a whole, we should be cautiously treated thethings have happened in history to bring our thinking.