The Analysis Of1995-1996Taiwan Strait Crisis Bargaining Process Between China And America

Since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, there has been three large Taiwan strait crisis,1995-1996Taiwan strait crisis was the most serious military confrontation since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and America. This paper selected1995-1996Taiwan strait crisis as object of research, using game theory and models of the book Conflict among Nations which written by Glenn Synder and Paul Die sing to analyze the game process and result in the1995-1996Taiwan Strait Crisis between China and America.The first part introduces the basic game theory, such as chicken model, prisoner’s dilemma, bully model and critical risk model; proposed concept of bargaining value structure and bargaining strategies and tactics, value structure mainly included military power and resolve, and military power also related to alliance relations. The basic argument of this paper is that selection of different bargaining strategies is based on the different crisis stage, when bargaining goals changed in different stages, the game models and bargaining strategies will be different.This paper focused on two stage analysis. The first stage was from May22,1995, when the Clinton administration approved the visa for Li Denghui’s visit to Cornell university, to October24,1995, in which Clinton and Jiang Zemin met at Lincoln center. In this stage, Each Bargaining side selected chicken model, the result of this bargaining process was the failure of china. The second stage was from October24,1995to March23,1996when Taiwan region leader election was over. China began to apply bully models and conducted the second round missile tests. In this stage, China has basically achieved its goals, America recognized the bottom line and resolve of China for the Taiwan issues, suing to repair the relations with China. However, the bargaining effect of china is decreased due to "Liu liankun" event.The final part focused on the cost-benefit analysis from the view of short run and long run influence to both sides. In the end, this article will provide inspirations for China to deal with Taiwan crisis in the future.