Population Stability In Ecologically Fragile Area Under The Trend Of Population Outflow

A reasonable and orderly development of population is a significant component of the harmonious development of economy and society. And finding solutions to population problems efficaciously becomes a crucial part of government performance naturally. Population mobility has becomes the focus of society along with the economic and social development. And population mobility has already been one of the core problems in demography. Researches explore the population mobility issues from different respects, whether the trend, the characteristics or the effect of population mobility. Based on demography, management and sociology, this paper sets up growth model of population system with outflow using the method of stochastic mathematics. By numerical calculation and simulation, analyses the influence of population outflow on population system, and then points out the influence on a regional economic society, providing new perspective for studies on stability of population system. And further, the paper provides scientific guidance and evidence to solve regional population problems.After a literature review, this paper discusses the features of population outflow in detail, such as quantity, time and structure. Based on the perspective of stochastic mathematics, makes a quantitative analysis of the population system with outflow, then builds model to describe the stability of population system quantitatively. With the fact finding data and MATLAB software, conducts an analogue simulation on the development of population system in Minqin, describes the trend of population in Minqin from two aspects of total population number and age structure.Based on stochastic process theory, this paper gives a look at population system, and the research shows:(1) As a result of vulnerable and poor ecological environment, the regional population systems suffered more disturbances from the external environment, which mainly in the form of population outflow. So compared with other areas, the population systems of ecologically fragile areas have its own unique characteristics, the most prominent is poor stability. (2) Case study on population system in Minqin shows that population outflow in ecologically fragile areas affect the stability of population systems mainly in the number and age structure of the population:in the future10years, there are about60000people flow out in various ways which makes proportion of aged population increased from14.6%to87.4%. This shows that population outflow intensify the imbalance of population age structure in Minqin, eventually damage the stability of population system, and the system lost the basis for sustainable development.(3)From the case study, the fundamental methods to solve the problem of population systems in ecologically fragile areas are to build harmonious relationship between human and nature. From the point of view of public administration, local government should actively carry out ecological administration construction, build a service-oriented government, and improve the functions of government, meanwhile, the government should plan scientifically, promote the harmonious development of rural areas, and finally, the government should build the immigration system of multi-agent cooperation that villagers participate in.