Study On Mesure Of Regional Real Estate Bubble Based On The Theory Of Cointegration

Real estate industry is a pillar industry of our national economy, which plays ahuge role in promoting the national economy development. After the financial crisis in2008, China could restrain economic downturn trend in a short term, and have the firststeady rise in such a bad international financial crisis; the economy was "V" line ofdevelopment. It is no doubt that China’s real estate had a great effect on solving theeconomic crisis. The real estate industry, together with the financial industry, is knownas the thermometer of the economic development. For this reason, the real estateindustry’s development has become a problem concerned by all the people, and ofwhich the real estate bubble attracts most attention. Once the real estate bubble burst, itwill cause serious economic consequences; Japan’s real estate bubble burst in the1990sof the real estate industry should give us an alarm bell. For obvious regional differencesexist in our country economic development, the essay thinks that the study on theregional real estate bubble has more and practical significance. Whether the real estatebubble exists, and how to measure its size become problems which need to be solvedquickly. And it’s also the focus of this essay.This paper firstly summarizes and sorts theories about real estate bubble domesticand foreign, discusses the concept of real estate bubble; analyze the causes of the realestate bubble from the aspect of the necessary conditions, direct inducement, push handand the root cause. Later the paper studies the existing methodologies of measures aboutthe real estate bubble, and makes a comprehensive summary and compares themethodologies; and then, uses a combination of co-integration theory and indexindicators method to build a real estate bubble measurement system. Then the paperuses the model to measure the extent of real estate bubble in Qingdao as a case study.Finally, the paper brings about four aspects of strategies to inhibit the real estate bubble,with a view to provide a reference for measurement and inhabitation of the real estatebubble.