Further Research About Lewis Turning Point In China

"Labor shortage" phenomenon has been constantly existing in eastern coast areasand spreading into the inland provinces since2004, which has sparked the Chinesescholars’ arguments over whether Lewis Turning Point has arrived. The correctanswer to the question mentioned above is crucial to the judgment of stages of currenteconomic development, features of existing contradictions as well as all-rounded andstrategic issues. Based on the different understandings of the Lewis Model,conclusions the scholars arrive at vary, which are mainly manifested in the followingthree aspects: whether Lewis Model are applicable to China; How to understandLewis Turning Point and how to choose between and explain the measuring items.On the basis of Lewis’<Dual Economy>, by means of relaxing some restrictionon the relevant hypotheses (labor homogeneity hypothesis, two-class land systemhypothesis, equality of labor rights hypothesis and identity hypothesis of developmentin modernized sectors) related with Lewis dual-economy model,the paper aims toillustrate that Lewis dual-economy model can be better applied in China; the firstLewis turning point is more important for our current policies by comparing theconcrete definitions of the first Lewis turning point and the second Lewis turningpoint; The measuring items chosen is feasible when China’s actual conditions andcharacteristics of Lewis first turning point are taken into consideration.On the basis of differentiation of the relevant theories, this paper will make a caseanalysis of whether China has stepped into the Lewis first turning point or not. And aseries of phenomena, such as the constantly increasing salary, the existence of a largenumber of surplus labor and rural labor shortage, indicate that we’ve reached theLewis first turning point. However, the arrival of the Lewis first turning point doesn’tmean surplus labor have been fully absorbed. On the contrary, there are still a largenumber of surplus labor in our market，most of which are rural surplus laborⅡ. Inorder to eliminate the dual economic structure, we should and have to make moreefforts in terms of industry transfer, rural labor training, reform of land system andhousehold registration system, organic agriculture development, and so on.