Study On Development Strategy Of Renewable Energy In China On The Condition Of Uncertainty

Fossil energy is the dominant energy resources in the world, and energy consumption isincreasing with the development of economic which brings about energy crisis andenvironment pollution. So, the development of renewable energy has become currently theinternational consensus. Therefore, the study of renewable energy development strategy isparticularly necessary, while increase the renewable energy utilization is the inevitable choiceto adjust energy structure, solve energy crisis and reduce environmental pollution and protectthe energy sustainable development of China in the future.This thesis uses SWOT to conduct environmental analysis and evaluate the status quo ofrenewable energy development of China. Then, it makes use of scenario analysis andregression analysis for the demand forecast of renewable energy on the basis of systematicreview about related research at home and abroad. Finally, it makes the development strategy.This thesis makes the following main work and results:(1) Evaluate the development status of renewable energy and analysis the strengths ofrich resources and huge market potential, the weaknesses of higher costs and policyimperfections, the opportunities of reducing dependence on foreign energy and protect energysecurity, the challenges of technological innovation.(2) Define and evaluate the uncertainties which have effect to the demand of renewableenergy.(3) Sets low-speed, medium-speed, high-speed these three development scenarios, makesuse of multiple-regression for the demand forecast of renewable energy under differentscenarios, makes the future development strategy and puts forward the safeguard measures inthe end.The above results supplement the lack of research about the demand forecast of renewable energy, and provide guidance for making plan to achieve sustainable developmentultimately.