Scenario Analysis Of Group Event’s Under Views Of Game Theory

China is in the special period of Social Transformation, Institutional Transition and BeneficialAdjustment. Pattern adjustment of benefits and changes of social control model, acceleration of socialdifferentiation and social mobility, making the social contradictions and conflicts escalated, lead to anumber of different levels of Group Events. For correct understanding of the causes of group events,deeply analyzestheoccurs,developmentsandevolutionmechanismofthem,basedonscenarioanalysis’importance to system future occurring possibility description, take Game Theory as analyzing tool of theoccurs, developments and evolution mechanism of group events,studyrelevant factors of group events’developments, build scenario model of group events.Firstly, this Paper takes the combination of social combustion theory and value accumulation theory,analyzes of Group Event occur, development, evolution and calm, builds a theoretical model of the lifecycle of Group Event, paves the way for the various stages of scene analysis. Second, get theevolutionary game theory, the classic game theory and the subjective game theory together to construct agame model under different scenarios with the payoff matrix. Finally, takes Yunan Suijiang landlessmigrants surrounding the County for example, analyzes the relative benefits among Three Gorges Group,Local government and landless migrants, builds model in different scenarios of the occur, development,evolution and calm of this group event. Due to the not transparent settlement policy and localgovernment did not timely and effectively respond to demands of social vulnerable group, group eventbrokes out. Use forward induction and game model to discover group events’ development andevolution conditions, build different scenarios, both gaming sides seek respectively maximum benefits,the incidents continue to expand and spread. Game both sides takes a different strategy in order toachieve equilibrium, so as to get the Group Event of life cycle events to calm stage.Basedongroupevents’causesanddevelopingtrendsinvariousscenarios,bybuildinggamemodel,analyze game relationships and stable equilibrium conditions among various stakeholders, makeeffectively early warning and preventions, and effectively reduce the occurring numbers of group events,lower group events’harm degree. It has strong theoretic and practical significance to prevent and deal withChina’sgroupevents.