Evolution Mechanism Of Unconventional Emergencies Based On System Dynamics

Since the21st century, unconventional emergencies break out frequently, which bringserious disaster to society and country, meanwhile attract extensive attentions from thegovernments and academia. It is very difficult for government to make urgent decision and domanagement because the emergencies break out very rarely and unpredictably. In suchcircumstances, this article takes unconventional emergencies evolution process as researchobject, and aims to explore the deep reason of the emergencies, which analyzes complexstructure of the emergencies evolution system, and use system dynamics models to simulationthe evolution process. As a result, it can promote the emergency management more orderly,prevent the diffusion and evolution of the accident to a certain extent, improve the currentsituation to deal with unconventional emergencies and ensure the country and society security.This article collects some typical events. Based on the system analysis, using experienceevents analysis method and theory analysis method, it sums up the main factors caused thegeneration and evolution of unconventional emergencies. Meanwhile, this paper uses ISMmethod to determine the layered structures of all the factors, and selects the key factors whichinfluence the unconventional emergencies during the evolution, and establishes the influencefactors system of the unconventional emergencies evolution. Additionally, based on the theoryand modeling method of system dynamics, with man-machine-environment theory andprevious researching achievements, the unconventional emergencies evolution system isdivided into four subsystems, as human factor, environment factor, machine factor andemergency management. Through deep analysis of the internal relationship of everysubsystem and factor, establish dynamics simulation model and equations. The specificunconventional emergencies events, such as7.23Yong-Wen line especially serious railwayaccident, which use five-segment value method combining with expert experience toassign value to the related parameters. Besides, by application of the Vensim software, itconcludes simulation trend diagram of unconventional emergencies evolution process. From the compare between correlative factor trend chart and evolution trend chart, this paper offerspolicy advice on unconventional emergencies in each subsystem level, and provides supportfor the follow-up research on the unconventional emergencies.