The Contribution Of China’s Service Trade Exports To GDP

Trade in goods and trades in services have always been the two integral parts which constituted international trade, and they also played an important role in promoting the development of the world economy. But since the 1980s, the international trade in services has entered a period of rapid development, and the emphasis of World economic competition began to shift from merchandise trade to services trade. Service industry and service trade have become increasingly concerned by the countries in the world.Now that trade in services is increasingly becoming the engine of national economic development, China must change the economic and trade strategies. In the report on 17th CPC National Congress General, Secretary Hu clearly noted that, "promotion of economic growth major driven by the secondary industry shift to rely on collaboration change of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry " and "To change the growth mode of foreign trade quickly, based on strategy of success through quality, to adjust the import and export structure, and to promote transformation and upgrading of processing trade, and to strive to develop trade in services." China’s service trade deficit has maintained for many years. To develop trade in services and to expand service trade exports, not only do good to improve the international balance of payments of trade in services and optimize the overall structure of China’s exports, but also are of great historical significance and practical significance to improve China’s position in the international division of labor and promote China’s industrial structure adjustment and take the road of sustainable development.The study of thesis is divided into two parts. The first part is a direct measurement based on input-output table of 2002, which directly measure the contribution of trade in services to the economy. Not only does it measure the contribution of trade in services as a whole to the economy, but also it measures the contribution of every sector of service trade to the economy. Besides, it measures the contribution of total trade in goods and goods trade in every sector to the economy, in order to make comparative analysis with trade in services. The second part is an indirect measurement, which indirect analyzes trade in services exports of the overall impact on the economy and the leading role through reaction coefficient, influence coefficient, as well as the correlation coefficient.The thesis is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the Introduction, focused on the writing background, significance and research methodologies. Trade in services develops faster and faster and has become the focus of the world’s new economic. There has been more and more study of trade in services. Most of studies of China’s trade in services used regression methods, which did not exclude imports of factors of trade in services and relatively involved the interior departments less. For all these reasons, the thesis based on the latest 42 sectors input-output table of 2002 years to study China’s trade in services, in which I adopt direct and indirect analysis, and comparative analysis combined to demonstrates leading role of China’s service trade development for the economy.The second chapter describes the theoretical basis of trade in services and literature review of trade in services.In ChapterⅢ, in order to have a macro understanding of trade in services, I introduced the trends of world’s trade in services development and the overview of China’s service trade development.Chapter IV is the empirical analysis. SectionⅠintroduce the meaning of input-output, as well as the structure of input-output table and split the input-output table based on the following need. SectionⅡbegan to analysis 42 department table of 2002. The first is to measure the contribution of trade in services to GDP, which is the added value. Meantime, compare the value with the goods. Then it analyzes the contribution of the interior sectors of trade in services to GDP formation, and makes comparison with trade in goods. SectionⅢis indirect analysis, mainly measuring the leading role of trade in services and other industries through reaction coefficient, influence coefficient, as well as the correlation coefficient. The last is to sum up the overall empirical analysis and evaluation of a conclusion.ChapterⅤ, according to the results of empirical analysis, puts forward the development of China’s service trade policy recommendations. Study trade in services exports and GDP from the perspective of empirical input-output analysis which adopts direct analysis, indirect analysis and comparative analysis. In the analysis, first of all I remove inputs in import from various sectors, so that the measurement is more accurate and more persuasive.The innovations of the article are as follows:First of all, different from most regression analysis, I adopt input-output analysis method to study the contribution of trade in services to GDP. Secondly, when I research the contribution of services trade to GDP, not only do I directly measure the contribution, but also are also carry out correlation analysis between services and other industries in order to indirectly study the contribution to GDP. Thirdly, I analysis of trade in goods while analysis trade in goods comparatively; Fourthly, during the course of the study, China’s input-output table is split in order to remove the import factor contained in service trade export, thus it can avoid the impact of re-export trade and make estimates more convincing.