Research On The Effect Of China's Agricultural Subsidy On Grain Yield

In 2004,China have implemented a series of agricultural subsidy policies to open the road of coordinated development between urban and rural areas.Since the implementation of the "four-subsidy" policy,the supply of grain has continued to grow and farmers' interests have been effectively protected.In the past 14 years,since the operation of the subsidy policy,the contradiction in the supply side of China's grain market has also gradually emerged.This is mainly manifested in the lack of high-quality supply of rations,the high level of some food stocks,the increasing degree of dependence on foreign soybeans,and the inverting food prices at home and abroad.What impact does existing agricultural subsidies have on grain production that is related to national food security?The answer to this question has important practical significance.Based on this,from the perspective of China's grain supply-side reform,this paper empirically analyzes the effect of agricultural subsidies on food production and structure in China's 13 main grain-producing regions using the cross-term model and the single-threshold model,and determines the threshold which the input-output elasticity can be significantly improved,hopes to provide new ideas for the implementation of structural reforms in China's grain supply side.The main findings are as follows:Firstly,Production support subsidies and agricultural machinery purchase subsidies can promote the growth of food production,and there are provincial differences in the effect of subsidies on production.When the production support subsidy exceeds the threshold of 5.956 billion yuan,the output elasticity coefficient of grain sown area and fertilizer input will increase significantly.When the purchase subsidies for agricultural machinery exceeded the threshold of 1.162 billion yuan,the output elasticity of the total power of agricultural machinery increased significantly.Nine provinces including Anhui,Hebei,Jilin,Inner Mongolia,Shandong,Sichuan,Jiangsu,Henan and Heilongjiang have already exceeded the production support subsidy threshold.Eight provinces such as Anhui,Hebei,Henan,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Jiangsu,Inner Mongolia and Shandong broke through the subsidy threshold for purchase of agricultural machinery.The two subsidy thresholds in Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,and Liaoning have all failed to break through.Secondly,The input-output elasticity of the rural labor force is not significant regardless of whether it exceeds the threshold.The decentralization of rural grain production has led to a very low degree of scale in food production.Production support subsidies have not affected the distribution of production activities in labor resources.Last but not least,at present,the most prominent problem of China's agricultural subsidy policy is not the lack of total amount,but the problem of structural imbalances.According to the estimation of the threshold model,by 2016,9 provinces in 13 provinces in the main grain-producing areas have already exceeded the threshold for production support subsidies,which indicates that the support for agricultural subsidies in many provinces has reached the standard.However,from the viewpoint of grain planting structure and grain crop yield,the effect of policies is weakened and the efficiency of subsidies is more extensive.We believe that to change the status quo of low food policy efficiency,"precise agricultural subsidies" should be implemented.On the one hand,the introduction of a market-based mechanism to establish a sound agricultural product price mechanism is the key to breaking the current structural contradiction on the food supply side.On the other hand,clarify the target of subsidies,coordinate production and quality in parallel,and at the same time innovate the subsidy method to reduce administrative costs;establish a coordination mechanism for relevant policies.