The Expectation Management And Countermeasure Research On Grain Price Fluctuation

The study on grain price issue,which relates to national economy and the people’slivelihood, has important significance at any time. China ‘s grain prices has undergone severalreforms since1978, and the plan-leading price system has been transform into market-leadingsystem. The grain price rose with fluctuation, with the fluctuation amplitude increases gradually.Volatile grain prices will indirectly endanger the food safety, and affect agricultural productivity,GDP and the daily life of residents. Currency surplus and frequent extraordinary weathercondition lead to a result that psychological factors are dominant in the fluctuation of grainprices. In foreign exchange market, or even in international commodity market, marketspeculation has increasing impact on goods prices, especially on the prices of agriculturalproducts. Therefore, it is important to analyze the fluctuation of grain price in a psychologicalpoint of view, to solve the fluctuation problem of grain price on the basis of marketexpectation, and to guide the grain prices fluctuate in a reasonable range. In this paper, wework on the base of a supply-demand model, applying adaptive expectation theory and rationalexpected theory, build up an analysis model of price fluctuation containing the expectation.This paper analyzes the price fluctuation qualitatively and quantitatively, both microcosmicanalysis and macroscopic analysis, both dynamic analysis and static analysis. It examines theinfluences on grain price fluctuation analysis not only of adaptive expectation and rationalexpectation, but also of elementary economic factors such as supply, demand and exchange rate.This study will play a positive role when the government draws up the reasonable and stablegrain price policy, and realizes stimulative agriculture policy goals.