Research On The Problem Of Grain Revenue Insurance Based On Grain Risk Management

Modern farmers are not only vulnerable to the loss of grain production due to natural disasters,but also faced with more and more frequent market price fluctuation in the grain circulation.China has established policy-based agricultural insurance to safeguard grain productivity risk,and also implemented the minimum purchase price policy and target price system to safeguard price risk.These risk management tools provide effective guarantee for preventing the risk of farmers' revenue,but their limitations also bring a series of contradictions and problems,which can not meet the increasing risk management requirements of modern farmers.Crop revenue insurance covers not only the loss of production due to natural disasters,but also the loss of price due to market risks,and comprehensively guarantees the loss of revenue due to both natural and market risks.Since the introduction of crop revenue insurance in the United States in 1996,has been welcome and supported by farmers.In 2002,revenue insurance replaced traditional production insurance in the United States and became the most popular agricultural insurance type,and also one of the most important agricultural risk management tools of the United States government.In order to solve the shortage and dilemma of agricultural risk management tools in our country,this paper puts forward a new way of developing grain revenue insurance based on the experience of American agricultural support.This paper makes a theoretical analysis of grain revenue insurance from the aspects of its connotation and characteristics,key components,compensation situation and the way of determining the premium rate.Then it expounds the great significance of introducing grain revenue insurance in China.It is considered that grain revenue insurance is of great significance in improving the mechanism of agricultural price formation,meeting the risk management needs of new agricultural business entity,and avoiding the limitation of agricultural support policy in the WTO.Grain revenue insurance includes price risk in its coverage,expanding the function of agricultural insurance and providing an advanced form of agricultural insurance compared to traditional agricultural insurance that only covers yield risk.At the same time,there is a certain negative correlation between production and price,which can produce "natural hedging" effect,making the revenue risk less than the sum of production risk and price risk.Therefore,grain revenue insurance is very feasible in theory.In terms of the conditions of carrying out grain revenue insurance,although there are still some shortcomings and deficiencies in our country,the basic conditions for carrying out the policy have been initially established.Then this paper takes the wheat of Henan province as an example,simply designs the key points of the grain revenue insurance policy,including the insurance subject,the time and duration,the guaranteed revenue,the actual revenue and the compensation rules.According to the Central First Document in 2018,the guaranteed revenue is set to cover the full cost of materialization,labor,land and basic profit.On this basis,the distribution patterns of wheat yield and price were respectively determined by using Eviews7.0 and Easyfit5.4.The combined distribution pattern of wheat yield and price was determined by using the Copulafit function in Matlabr2015 b.Then,the Monte Carlo method is applied to simulate the sample data of revenue.At last the simulated data are put in the formula of revenue insurance and pure rate and gross rate of wheat revenue insurance under certain guarantee was calculated.Finally,in order to carry out the grain revenue insurance policy smoothly in our country,this paper puts forward some suggestions on system facilities and state subsidy.