Scale Determination And Site Location For Logistics Parks

As an important part of overall planning of national logistics industry, logistics park planning has been treated at an unprecedented strategic level in the process of developing vigorously logistics industry in China. Based on the specific circumstances of current logistics statistics, this thesis aims to the improvement of existing planning theory as a fundamental key to accurately grasp the regional logistics demand, to reasonably determinate the scale of a logistics park and scientifically select a location for the park in this paper. An in-depth system analysis is carried out on three important aspects of the logistics park preparatory planning including regional logistics demand forecasting, scale determination and site location for a logistics park. Meanwhile, a case study is carried out based on the survey data from Y city Logistics Park planning project.In research for regional logistics demand forecasting, relevant concepts about regional logistics demand forecasting are introduced and various forecasting methods are analyzed comparatively after the steps and processes of regional logistics demand forecasting are summarized. Then an second improved gray Markov regional logistics demand forecasting model is highlighted and forecasting results of traditional and improved model are analyzed comprehensively including the maximum relative error, the average relative error and the relative residual sum of squares. The result show that the second improved model has a better predict the effect.In research for scale determination methods of logistics park, the scale of domestic and international logistics parks are absorbed fully. Meanwhile, parameter method, functional area classification method, time and space consumption method, analogy method are summarized and analyzed. The calculation formula of parameter method is improved on the basis of comparing advantages and disadvantages of different methods. Accordingly, a more general method of calculating the scale of the logistics park is proposed by introducing partition coefficient, other land area ratio coefficient, reserved land coefficient, comprehensive correction coefficient.In research for methods of site location for logistics park, the site principles and influencing factors of logistics park are summarized and site evaluation index system for logistics park is established including target layer, criterion layer, judgment layer, program layer. And the improved method of analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used in site location for logistics park by introducing the concept of optimal transfer matrix in the analytic hierarchy process without the need for consistency test in order to avoid causing the possibility of blindness for adjusting judgment matrix manually.Based on the above three improved theoretical approaches, this thesis provides a theoretical foundation for relevant planning and feasible research in building logistics parks in future.