A Study On Real Estate Market Bubble

Throughout economic recession in the history, a very similar operation process,including abundant liquidity, economic prosperity, stock and property soared, policymanagement, asset value shrink and economic recession, is found easiliy. With thedevelopment of economic change, real estate is slowly acting as investment products.Real estate that has dual natures is unstable in a certain economic environmentespecially economic expansion period, which makes bubble. And the way of bubbleburst decides to the trend of a country economic rise or decline.Since 2003, our real estate market prices rises too clearly, even during theinternational financial crisis period , the price still went on rising. Our governmentrecognizes the importance of the real estate market regulation, and constantly takesactive measures, but still not very obvious control effect. what is the nature of realestate, that leads to people are eager to buy constantly in a high price? At present,how is the situation of our real estate, whether there is any bubble, if it is, the bubblesize? Whether Our real estate bubble will be broken or not, eventually lead toeconomic recession ,like Japan and the United States? Is our policy control on realestate effective? How is the future of real estate? This paper tries to solve the a seriesof questions.The first part is the introduction. Author puts forward the background andsignificance, On the basis of related literatures, and Summarizes the research idea,innovations and inadequate of this paper.The second part is the theory analysis of real estate bubble. Author carefullyanalyzes the features and the definition of the real estate bubble, summarizes formsand operation mechanism, and puts forward real estate market instability model thatproves the expecting plays the important role in the real estate bubble and solves thehigh demand at the high price.The third part is the real estate market bubble research at home and abroad. Inthis part, author respectively reviews housing market bubble and rupture process of Japan and the United States, determining the bubble degree of the real estate marketat present in China by the use of indicators method. Comparing Japan and the UnitedStates with china, the author analyzes the similarities and differences, solving theproposed second and third problem.The fourth part is the real estate bubble empirical analysis. By the application ofthe model, author analyzes and compares the effection the basic economic factorsand expecting factors in rising home prices, proving that the current real estatemarket bubble has the unique characteristics, that is regional.The fifth part is policy suggestions. Author reviewes real estate control policyof 2003-2011, considering the policy response, and illustrates the effectiveness of thecontrol policy of real estate management in the real estate market. According to theregional character of bubble, author puts forward some suggestions on the futuredevelopment of the real estate market.