Study On China's Real Estate Bubble Measurement And The Effectiveness Of Purchase Restriction Policies

Since the abolition of the welfare housing system,China's real estate market has achieved unprecedented development.On the one hand,this development is reflected in the surge of housing transaction volume;on the other hand,it is also reflected in the rapid growth of housing price.The discussion on whether there is a bubble in China's real estate market is also rising quietly.At the same time,in order to curb the rapid rise of housing prices and ensure the healthy development of the real estate market,many cities have issued real estate purchase restriction policies since 2010.Has the implementation of such policies played a positive role in curbing the overheated development of the real estate market,the extent of the effect has always been the focus of scholars.In view of the above facts,this paper adopts the research method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis to conduct an in-depth study on the inhibitory effect of China's real estate bubble measurement and purchase restriction policies on the real estate bubble.First of all,using the method of index,respectively select real estate development investment proportion of investment in fixed assets,growth rate of residential commercial housing sales/growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods,price-to-income ratio and average sales price growth rate of residential commercial housing /GDP growth rate.The four indicators measure the real estate bubbles of China as a whole and 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions.The numerical results show that there is real estate bubble in China as a whole,but the degree of bubble varies in different regions and years.Secondly,this paper selects the housing price to income ratio data of 20 cities with serious real estate bubbles from 2007 to 2017,the DID model was adopted to carry out an empirical study on the implementation effect of the purchase restriction policy in the real estate market.The empirical results show that the implementation of the real estate purchase restriction policy has a negative effect of about 0.02 on the real estate bubble in related cities in China,which indicates that the implementation of the real estate purchase restriction policy indeed restrains the real estate bubble.At the same time,the empirical results also show that the effect of the purchase restriction policy is basically invalid in the third year after the implementation of the policy.