Prediction Of Land Use Based On Ca-markov Model In Gannan Prefecture

Land use and its transformation is the integrated result of the natural and anthropogenic factors. In recent years, the conflicts in land use are continually increasing. Therefore, Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) has become a hot study area. Accordingly, to conduct the research of land use prediction has an important significance on land resource management and maintains the sustainable development of regional society and economy. In this study, we obtained a series of land use maps (i.e.,2000,2005&2010) in Gannan prefecture by use of interpreted TM images. Through statistic analyzation, the spatial distribution situation of land use in2010is studied in Gannan Prefecture, and the land use driving forces is analyzed with meteorological data and DEM data. Combining GIS with CA-MARKOV model, the future land use is predict base on land use maps in the different years and transform rules of varied land use types. The results showed that:(1) during2000to2010, except that the area of forest and unused land have decreased, arable land, grassland, residential and industrial land, as well as water has increased, in which the magnitude of increase for grassland is maximum, the increasing rate reaches by2.38%, forestland reduces by2.09%.(2) the arable land, residential and industrial land tends to concentrate in the altitude of2500m-3500m. The forest land and grassland tends to distribute in the altitude of3000m-4000m. The land that is difficult to use tends to concentrate in the altitude of3500m-4500m. Over50%of residential and industrial land and waters is mainly distributed in the areas that the slope is below5°. More than25%of arable land and grassland is on the slope below5°. The area of forestland and land difficult to use reaches the peak value where slope is about20°. Arable land and grassland have a similar tendency on aspect, and accurate located between90-270°. The forest land’s aspect is opposite with grassland and arable land. The waters are mainly distributed between aspects1-90°. The unused land in every aspect is nearly approximate, and covered above10%.(3) the maching degree between the land use map predicted by CA-MARKOV model and interpreted land use map in2010reaches by85.66%. This suggests that the approach can be used to accurate predict land use of Gannan Prefecture.(4) compared the prognostic land use map in2015to interpreted land use map in2010, arable land, grassland, waters, residential and industrial land will increase14760hm2,23213hm2,7474hm2,144hm2; forest land and unused land will decrease43544hm2,2047hm2, respectively.And (5) the2020prognostic land use map compared to2010interpretation land use map, Arable land, grassland, water, residential and industrial land will increase16416hm2,29304hm2,7481hm2,541hm2; forest land and unused land will decrease44297hm2and9745hm2, respectively.