| Recently, as the world energy and environment issues becoming more and more serious, to promote smart grid construction is a strategic measure for the realization of energy saving and emission reduction as well as low carbon economy development. Under this background, intelligent factors including advanced power electronic technology, renewable energy and micro-net will be integrated into power system. And structure of power system will then be changed. In addition, as national power system gradually established, Chinese power grid will be developed to the direction of long distance, ultra high voltage and extra high voltage. The structure of power grid will become complexity, and all kinds of uncertain factors and their effects on the grid will increase. Therefore, in smart grid construction situation, the research of an efficient transmission system risk evaluation method is of vital significance to ensure the power system stability.Smart power system risk assessment is studied. First of all, principle and advantage of evaluation method is discussed, including Monte Carlo evaluation, fuzzy evaluation and artificial intelligence assessment. Secondly, the risk of smart power system is researched, in terms of transmission equipment, spare capacity, operation environment, structure, design criteria, and renewable energy access. Thirdly, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proposed and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index system is established. Finally, based on the study of the principle and disadvantage of binary ant colony algorithm, the algorithm is improved by a new pheromone concentration updating mechanism considering the search sequence, the risk assessment process is established. By the use of improved Garver-6node system, the risk of power transmission system with wind power integration is analyzed. And compared to the general and binary ant colony algorithm, the feasibility and validity of the improved algorithm is verified.. |
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