The Study Of Chinese Timber Supply And Policy

As one of the four traditional materials, timber is an important strategic resources supporting national economic development. The safety of timber supply will affect the coordinated development of China’s economy, society and the environment. Therefore, this paper forecasted the timber supply and demand situation in China, and analyzed the policies to protect the safety of China’s timber supply.First of all, this paper reviewed the research directions and conclusions of China’s timber supply and demand issues in existing studies, and focused on the review of research methods of timber supply and demand. Then, the paper introduced the supply and demand status of China’s major timber products and the overall situation of and timber supply and demand. Based on the theoretical review and analysis of timber supply and demand status, the fourth chapter established a supply and demand system dynamics model of China’s timber products by system dynamics. The section described the scope, structure and method of the model firstly. Then, it estimated the parameters of the model using panel data or time series data.The fifth chapter forecasted China’s timber supply and demand situation in2020by supply and demand system dynamics model of China’s timber products. First, this chapter evaluated the predictive ability of system dynamics model. Then, it forecasted the exogenous variables in the model using ARIMA models and other methods. Finally, it forecasted the overall situation of supply and demand of China’s major timber products and timber from2013to2020. The prediction results showed that the growth of China’s timber demand would be slowed down, and domestic wood consumption would reach760million m3in2020. From the perspective of import security, the sixth chapter analyzed the problem of timber supply. First, based on the index of oil supply security, it established the import risk index of timber products. Then, it established an optimal import structure model based on the quadratic form, and evaluated the import risk of logs, wood pulp and waste paper using the risk index and the import structure model respectively. Finally, it calculated the amount of timber products export to China from other countries in the case of the smallest risk.From the perspective of timber supply sources, the seventh chapter analyzed the measures to protect China’s timber supply security. First, the chapter simulated the impact of changes in afforestation area and the marketization of operation and management of forest resources on timber supply using system dynamics model respectively. Increaseing forest area was the fundamental measures to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of timber, but short-term effect was not obvious. Under the logging quota system, strengthen market regulation could stimulate the enthusiasm of timber supplier and reduce welfare losses. Then, the paper analyzed the recycling problem of timber and waste paper. By2020, the amount of timber recycling would reach more than200million m3in China, accounting for30%of China’s total demand for timber. At the same time, recycling of waste paper would develop rapidly, China’s waste paper recovery rate would reach67%by2020, and the foreign dependency would drop to30%. The Government should formulate corresponding policies to promote the timber and waste paper recycling developments in policies and regulations, technical standards and economic subsidies. Finally, the paper calculated the national optimal amount of timber and wood pulp imports from different countries in2020, using the model of optimal import share.In summary, this paper systematically studied China’s timber supply and demand issues using quantitative methods, and forecasted China’s timber supply and demand from2013to2020, and analyzed the different ways to protect timber supply, and provided basis for understanding China’s timber supply and demand changes and policy making. Meanwhile, the supply and demand system dynamics model of China’s timber products, the import risk index of timber products and optimal import structure model in the paper can be widely applied, and provide reliable and convenient decision analysis tools for government and business decision-makers.