The Tianjin Commodity Residential Demand Prediction Research

Today, how to make the housing prices steady in order to let most people have a room to live or can buy a living house, became the focus of our government’s work after many times of ups and downs fluctuation in China’s housing prices. The forecast of commercial housing demand is not only the basis of the study of the relationship between supply and demand of commercial housing, but also the data base of government balancing domestic supply of goods. The paper analyzed the influencing factors on the demand for commercial housing, and then chose the key factors to build a multiple linear regression model. The study results are:the current commercial residential sales price ups for every1%, then commercial residential area increased by2.12%; the number of household ups for every1%, then commercial residential area increased by1518.7%; the price earnings ratio ups for every1%, then sales of commercial residential area deducts by2399.5%; urban savings deposits up for every1%, then sales of commercial residential area will be reduced by18.7%. Based on the forecast of the major factors, the paper calculated out that the Tianjin’s sales area from14.6147million square meters in2009will sharply increase to20,981,400square meters in2014. The paper’s structure is as follows:The Tianjin’s commercial housing market is the paper’s study background. Firstly, the papers expounded the background and significance of this research. At the same time, the paper comprehensively elaborated the research and literature from domestic and international and the commercial residential and commercial housing demand theory, laid the foundation for the paper’s research. Secondly, the paper analyzed the various relevant factors of affecting the demand for commercial housing market, and using correlation analysis method to analyze and evaluate the above economic factors and non-economic factors after studying the development process, the development trend, the development status and the main features of China’s real estate. According to the relevance value between the factors and the dependent variable, the paper find out the key factors of commercial residential in Tianjin. Then by establishing the multiple regression analysis model of Tianjin’s commercial housing demand, predicted the future demand of Tianjin’s commodity residential. Finally, the paper makes a summary and work out some views on how to promote and develop Tianjin’s commercial housing market.