Research On The Early Warning System Of Agricultural Land Based On Emerty Analysis In Zhoukou City

Along with the accelerated process of urbanization and rapid population growth, the scope of land use by human has constantly expanded, at the same time, the extent and intensity of land use is also growing, which cause the contradictions between people and land become much more prominent. In addition, because of all types of construction, land destroyed by disasters and improper use, it made the number and quality of agricultural land decrease sharply. Therefore, to carry out agricultural land sustainable utilization research and predict sustainable development trends in future years of agricultural land has important practical significances to strengthen the management of agricultural land resource, ensure the China’s food security and the socio-economic rapid development.Based on this, by using the emergy analysis, this paper analyzed the emergy input-output of agricultural land, then by building the emergy evaluation index system of agricultural land sustainable utilization, this paper analyzed and determined the situation of sustainable utilization of agricultural land. Afterward, for the factors that affect the diversification of agricultural land, this paper analyzed the dominant factors. At last, making use of ARMA modle to establish agricultural land warning model in Zhoukou city, this paper predicted the situation of agricultural land utilization in2010-2015years.On this basis, this paper formulated corresponding measures to strengthen the sustainability of agricultural land in Zhoukou City.This paper obtained the following conclusions:(1) Emergy Analysis results showed that:the trend of emergy inputs was decreasing on the whole, and the inputs mainly dominated by non-renewable industrial support and renewable organic energy, whose proportion occupied the total emergy inputs was the more than90%; the proportion of total agricultural machinery power input was about60%, while human power was about6%, this illustrated that agricultural production has gradually got rid of the shackles of traditional agriculture in Zhoukou City. The trend of emergy outputs was increasing on the whole, and the outputs mainly dominated by crop and livestock, whose proportion reached to about99%, this illustrated that the structure of agricultural outputs was relatively simple.(2) From the social, economic and ecological aspects to build seven assessment indexes of agricultural land sustainable use, the seven indexed showed that the economic and social sustainability of agricultural land use has achieved initial results, while ecological sustainability was at a low level.(3) In short term, the key factors that affected the diversification of agricultural land were the number of the employed population in agriculture, the total population, non-farm economic level, the total grain output, the total power of agricultural machinery and food price index, which can be summarized as the power of agricultural science and technology development, population growth and the driver of economic interests.(4) The forecast results of agricultural land warning model in Zhoukou city showed that the area of agricultural land expressed as a slow decrease trend in2010-2015, but the extent of reduction was in the district of the non-police; the emergy investment ratio, emergy use intensity and emergy self-sufficiency rate continued the situation of non-police in2005-2009; the sustainability of social and economic aspects will increase, and ecological sustainability will be improved.