The Agricultural Industry Investment Fund Investment Risk Assessment Study

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy. In recent years, with the development of science and technology and the support of government policies, agricultural industrialization gradually becomes an important way for transforming traditional agriculture into modernization in our country. However, during the government making great efforts to promote agricultural industrialization, shortage of funds becomes the most important bottleneck which restricts the industrialization of agriculture. As a new financial innovation system, the Agricultural Industrialization Investment Fund can combine agricultural industrialization investment and capital market financing together efficiently, and provide funds for agriculture enterprise and agriculture industry project. By now, the agricultural industrial investment fund in our country is still in the initial stage, and the establishment of investment funds research is a grand research subject. This article links theory with practice, and chooses agricultural enterprises/project risk assessment study as the breakthrough point, trying to provide theoretical support for the successfully setting up and healthy operation of the agricultural industrial investment funds.In the basic of the development of industrial investment funds at home and abroad and the agriculture enterprise characteristics of our country, firstly this paper defines what the investment risk of agriculture investment fund is, and describes the resource and characters of investment risk. Then with the Flow Chart Method, we expound the risk factor of investment risk during the investment. Through the analysis of the present situation of the development of agriculture in our country, this paper defines the agriculture enterprise which is the research object of this paper, and divides them into three types which are forestry of planting, fishery of breeding and food processing. Through the literatures and investigations, this paper summarizes the characteristics of agricultural enterprise into seven specific aspects, which are compared with other industries, and then analyzes the three different kinds of agriculture enterprise separately, as they have difference from common agricultural enterprise characteristic. On this basis, this paper identifies the risks of investment while investing agriculture enterprise and summaries them into seven kinds. Then, this paper constructs the index system for evaluating investment risk for the three different kinds of agriculture enterprise respectively, and the index system is divided into three levels, in which the second level indexes includes the above8kinds of risk. What is necessary to point out is that, this paper builds an index system covering all risk factors firstly, and then considering different kind of enterprises have different risks, this paper builds another three scientific and rational index systems further for the three kinds of enterprise respectively. Thereafter, with the methods of Fuzzy Comprehensive Hierarchy Process (FAHP), this paper sets up a risk assessment model for measuring investment risk for agricultural industrial investment funds. In the model, the weight of the indexes is calculated by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Based on the evolution result, this paper discusses the way of investment.Then, this paper chooses Chang De Run Nong Co., LTD as an object and does case analysis. Firstly, this paper expounds the risk factor of investment risk if we invest to Chang De Run Nong. And then, some experts gives scores of the different indexes, and with the above model, we calculate the risk evaluation vector is (0.13640.12010.18600.23100.3265). When we calculate it by1point, its score of risk is0.2235. From the result, we can find that the risk condition of this firm is "low risk", that is to say, an Agricultural Industrialization Investment Fund could invest to it. The case research shows that the index system and evaluation model are scientific and reasonable.The conclusions of this paper are arrived at last, and this paper also proposes the next research direction.