The Study On The Financial Risk Assessment Of Agricultural Industrialization Project

The industrialization projects are increased by agricultural comprehensive development in 1994. The project is the main body of enterprises and cooperatives, involving in plant, breeding, agricultural products circulation and storage, closely contacting with various aspects of agricultural production, is the effective way to promote the development of agricultural economy. The agricultural comprehensive development continuously through the financial subsidies to promote such projects, under the policy to drive, project application amounts increasing year by year, reporting preliminary examination get more and more attention, the examination mostly depend on the expert evaluation of feasibility study report. And financial risk assessment is the key to the report and the important link in the process of project decision-making. Therefore analysis the industrialization project financial risk has important practical significance.The main research of the paper is as follows:(1)The financial risk assessment index system build of agricultural industrialization project.First of all, Analysis the existing financial risk assessment, find out the deficiency: links missing; method single; category incomplete; index selection unreasonable. Then, use decomposition analysis method to analysis the financial risk factors. In the process of decomposition, consider the whole project process, combining with the characteristics of agricultural industrialization project, the result decompose the influence factors of five kinds: investment, financing, operation, social benefit and ecological benefit, social benefit and ecological benefit as agricultural project characteristics different from other conventional project.Last, design the index system. Index divided into three levels:the target layer, criterion layer and plan layer. Target layer is the research object, rule layer based on the factor analysis results, the plan layer is the specific indicators.(2)The financial risk assessment based on the comprehensive evaluation method.The improved AHP method based on the expert investigation method combine the qualitative with quantitative, avoid strong subjective and blind quantitative, dimensionless process eliminate the quantity difference. The results will be more scientific, can measure the influence degree of every index.(3)The case application.Select the typical project of agricultural industrialization. Use the existing system and the designed system to assess the financial risk, compare the two results. The designed system in the following aspects better than before:index selection more comprehensive, assessment method more scientific, assessment results more credible, the influence degree of each part more clear, provide more targeted decision-making basis for investors.According to the research object, the paper give financial risk assessment and avoid advice from two aspects:Assessment level take measures from the aspects of right institution, professional personnel training, strengthen scientific evaluation technology popularization and audit system consummation; The control level from the preparation, establish early warning, control risk capital structure point to guard against the risk.