Study On Investment Risk Evaluation And Coping Strategy Of Wenduhe Agricultural Ecological Garden Project

Compared with the traditional agricultural model,the agricultural ecological park is a new type of modern agriculture development model which integrates ecological tourism,product processing,leisure and entertainment,pension service and commerce service as an integrated ecological park,it can achieve the organic unity of economic benefits,social benefit and ecological benefits.In recent years,the state has given strong support to the agricultural ecological park in the aspects of institutions and policies,it has attracted many investors to get involved in this area and got rapid development.But as a new model of agriculture,it cannot get rid of the inherent characteristics of agriculture itself,long construction period,capital investment and slow return on investment,resulting in the construction of agricultural ecological park is also facing many risks.Therefore,it is very necessary to carry out the systematic research on risk management for the agricultural ecological park.Through the literature research,the paper sorts out the research status,progress and trends of risk management and briefly describes the theory of risk management.The principle,steps and function of AHP are emphatically introduced.Then,the paper focuses on the background planning,development goal,investment budget and financing plan of Wenduhe Agricultural Ecological Park.On this basis,the risk factors that may be faced in the construction and operation of the Wenduhe Agricultural Ecological Park project are identified through the expert investigation method and the field research method.Six main risks are identified as natural,social,financial,technical,market and management,in which a detailed breakdown of twenty-one specific risks.The paper analyzes the reasons for these specific risks.The risk factors are evaluated by AHP method and ranked.The result shows that the probability of financial risk occurred the most,followed by technical risk and market risk.In the specific risk factors,capital turnover,project financing,market competition,project progress,cost overruns and market price fluctuation are the main risk factors.Finally,combined with the actual situation of Wenduhe Agricultural Ecological Park project,the paper puts forward reasonable precautions against the risks of the project.Through the research on the risk management of the Wenduhe Agricultural Ecological Park project,this risk management research method and the response measurescan be promoted and used for reference to the risk management of the agricultural ecological park project.