The Analysis Of Export Trade Sturcture In China-under The Views Of Macroeconomy

On the basis of international economics,international investment theory,exchangerate theory and H-O theory. This thesis classifies the categories of China’s exportcommodities.Use the method of the relevant index analysis and cointegration analysisto analyze the changes of China’s export commodity structure and internationalcompetitiveness. Proposes relevant policy recommendations of the update of China’sexport commodity structure in the future. This article has important innovationalsignificance both in theoretically and in practically under the present tradeenvironment.This paper firstly introduces relevent trade theory based on Labor productivityadvantage and Resource wealth together with the Contemporary trade theory todescribe the causes and development of international trade. Then paper introduces thedefinition and characteristics of international trade structure, divides China’s exportcommodities into agricultural products, labor-intensive and capital-intensive productsaccording to the Standard International Trade Classification, the proportion of exportsof these three categories of products in total exports is defined as the export structureof the three categories of products. The above constitutes the starting point of thisresearch.Secondly, paper uses the Lawrence Index to analyze the changes in exportstructure of this three product categories. Then paper takes the RMB exchange rateand foreign direct investment as macro variables to analyze the relationship betweenthe structure of three product categories and this two variables by using cointegrationanalysis. Carries out the cointegration relationship in the long run between this twovariables and agricultural structure, the structure of the labor-intensive products, aswell as capital-intensive product. Finally,this paper makes the analysis of the changesin the international competitiveness of China’s agricultural and labor-intensive products,and capital-intensive products by using Michaely Index.At the same time,thearticle carries out relevant policy recommendations about update of China’s exportstructure based on the above conclusions.According to the theoretical and empirical research,this paper carries outconclusions as follow: In aspects of changes in trade structure, the fluctuation ofagricultural products is small,the fluctuation of labor-intensive products is obvious,butit tends to decrease.The fluctuation of capital-intensive products is moderate and theprocess tends to be continuous. On cointegration analysis, it is clear that the changingdirection between RMB exchange rate and the structure of agricultural andlabor-intensive products is same while foreign direct investment has a oppositetrend.For export structure of capital-intensive products,the changing directionbetweeen foreign direct investment and the structure is same,while the RMBexchange rate has a opposite trend.Finally, on the international competitiveness ofChina’s three product categories, the Michaely index can draw a small drop of theinternational competitiveness of agricultural products,as well as labor-intensiveproducts. The improvement of international competitiveness of the capital-intensiveproducts is very obvious. According to the above conclusions,this thesis carries outthat the process of China’s trade structure in the future should focus oncapital-intensive products,while maintaining the advantage of the internationalcompetitiveness of labor-intensive products as well as improving the technical contentand production scale of agricultural products.