Risk Quantitative Classiifcation And Risk Assessment Of Foreign General Contracting

In oversea contracting practices, the general contractors always undertake high risks because of the complexity of the internatioanl environment and the particularity of general contracting modes.It is necessary for project development, risk management and analysis technology trend to recognize,estimate, appraise and make responses to the large investment, high risk and long period oversea general contracting project. Risk classification and risk ranking playan important role in the risk management procedure.It is the main point in the study.The essay is divided into three parts. The first part analyses the52key risks in oversea general contracting, according to the document study and questionnaire survey. The second part makes a quantitative classification on the basis of many subjects such as project management theory, quantification theory and systems engineering theory.The52risks are classfied into main three categories and secondary six categories. Three categories including country risk, commercial risk and project risk, which is samiliar with the the traditional risk classification. The last part is to caculate different kinds of risk probability according to questinnaire survey and to present the rank ordering based on the probability of occurrence, consequence and dangerous degree of the52kinds of risks. Combined with reserch of quantification classification,it shows that the highest probability is product risk and the most serious is commercial risk. It also can easily get that the higest dangerous is commercial risk through probability of occurrence times consequence.Simultaneously, there are some suggestions and measures for our contractors to deal with the most concerned commercial risk.The main innovative points in this essay is adopting quantification theory to risk classification of oversea general contracting. I n this study, An oversea general contracting risk judgement matrix is established on the basis of the quantification theory III with choosing risk attribute From the viewpoints of system dynamics,making a qualitatively comprehensive classification to the oversea general contracting risks according to Using matlab as calculation tools for programming.