The Analysis Of Agricultural Economic Growth Factors

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, agricultural development level related to the national economic growth, related to the stability of the society. State has always attached great importance to agriculture, issuing and implementing a series of policies to support the development of agriculture. Such as the national agriculture and rural economic development of the tenth five-year plan,"about accelerating agricultural science and technology innovation several opinions","agricultural machinery purchase subsidy implementation guidelines," and so on, with decades of efforts, our country agricultural management level made great progress:(1) grain yield increasing year by year, gross output value of fisheries from2.0340.9trillion yuan in1995rise to6.0361trillion yuan in2009, increasing by196.7%.(2) the supply of agricultural products diversification, a lot of agricultural and sideline products poured into market, the supply of agricultural and sideline products adequated.(3) our agricultural production conditions improved, farming widely used mechanical work, agricultural mechanization total power from361.181million kw to87496.1watts kw, the rural irrigation by diesel machine gradually turn to power irrigation, increased the effective irrigation area, farmland effective irrigation area is from49.2812million hectares in1995, up to59.2614million hectares. However, the development of our country agriculture also have many problems:(1) agricultural achievements conversion low. Although agriculture science and technology have made great progress every year, and the agriculture research results more over6000, but the results of scientific research into-light application and other reasons, achievements conversion is not high, only41%, this is far less than the80%level in developed countries.(2) the technical team quantity is not enough, labor structure of talents is not reasonable, backup talent shortage.(3) our country lack of cultivated land resources, by the year2011, the land is only1.36acres, only for the world average of40%. More seriously, agricultural cultivated land in our country is increasingly lossing, From1995to2009about160million acres of cultivated land area are reducing, an average0.9%reduction annual. It is estimated that by2025, More over currently about8%land area will be reduced.(4) agricultural disaster situation serious. Because our country has a typical monsoon climate, climate change rate is high, which makes our country become the one of the most affected countries.such as drought, floods, landslides and mudslides, and so on. various disasters influenced agriculture in our country, the impact of meteorological disasters caused the most severe losses. Especially in recent years, major meteorological disasters caused heavy loss. the damage of agriculture about400-50billion yuan RMB every year.These problems seriously restricted the agriculture’s output growth level, but in the meantime, the demand of agricultural products is growing. so far, the gap of supply and demand is increasing. According to the state statistical bureau expected, China’s population growth rates will up to10million each year, by2020,it may reach1.4billion, a large number of population growth will increase the demand for food, the food in2020total demand will reach520million tons, in2020, to satisfy all the needs of population on food, food supply on the basis of now at least15%growth, meat, eggs, milk also needs to improve respectively17%,24%,182%. And with residents’ lives improving it will further drive the more demand for food. Therefore, to ensure food security, increasing food production is the primary task for China, agricultural production is the most important. In order to promote the agricultural economic growth, and to increase the food supply, we need to analyze the agricultural economic growth factors. Based on this, this paper established a panel data model, analyzing the influence of agricultural growth factors. Most of all,we need to analyze the influence of meteorological disasters, on the basis of empirical analysis,we put up policy suggestions to guide the increase of food supply, Meantimes, providing the reference for country to establish agriculture policy.In this paper, the idea and research purpose:First of all, This article reviews the related research of the domestic and overseas scholars about agricultural economic growth factors, according to their research it summarizes the worthy of learning and some deficiencies, puting forward the idea and research purposes. The research in this paper to solve the following problems:(1) what factors influence agricultural economic growth? Which factor plays the leading role? Which factors on the secondary role? How significant influence factors of agricultural economic contribution (2) how meteorological disasters of agricultural economic growth factors influence? What kind of meteorological disasters have the biggest influence on agriculture?Secondly, it first introduced some basic concepts and the related theory; Again based on the domestic and foreign relevant research analysis combined with China’s agricultural province of its own characteristics and the agriculture actual situation of our country,(1) the status of agriculture in our country and meteorological disaster status simple descriptive statistics,(2) selecting labor force, agricultural mechanization total power, crop total sowing area, chemical fertilizer, agriculture, animal husbandry, fishery structural changes value of fixed assets investment, government spending, support of every college degree, with the number of total area sown with crops than, financial institutions agricultural loans at the end with panel data measurement analysis, this paper analyzes the factors which improve agricultural growth,(3) using panel data model analyze the different meteorological disaster factors, and find out the main meteorological disasters. The empirical analysis conclusion: meteorological disaster factors of agricultural economic growth is the effect of significant, which have the biggest impact on meteorological disasters is drought disaster and wind hail; Agricultural science and technology progress, material input, investment factors on the largest contribution to the agricultural economic growth, government policy support, human capital for the agricultural economic growth have little influence.This paper finally puts forward some policy suggestions and the disadvantages in this paper.This article is divided into five chapters, the main contents are as follows:The first chapter: introduction. This paper firstly introduces the background and significance; Secondly, this paper puts forward the research idea and research content; Finally, this paper studies the characteristics are common.Chapter2:review. Reviews the domestic and foreign relevant research literature at home and abroad, and the empirical literature briefly evaluation method, and points out that the existing research literature empirical analysis is worth using for reference of the place and the existing problems. Chapter3:theoretical part. Mainly introduces about agriculture, agricultural province, the economic growth of the definition and related economic growth related theory.Chapter4:the empirical analysis. First to select index, including the reason of selecting index, the simple processing of index; And then nanlyze the factors of the agricultural economic growth using the panel data, find out the factors,meantimens find the meteorological disasters is significant negative; Finally analyze different meteorological disasters using panel data modleChapter5:the conclusion of policy proposals and a part of this paper, the disadvantages.This article features basically has the following three points:1. The introduction of meteorological disasters comprise more comprehensive variable factors. Based on actual situation analysis, some scholars at home and abroad research, This article selects labor force, agricultural mechanization total power, crop total sowing area, chemical fertilizer, agriculture, animal husbandry, fishery structural changes value of fixed assets investment, government spending, support of every college degree, with the number of total area sown with crops than, financial institutions agricultural loans at the end of the balance ten indexes panel data econometric. Research elements comprehensive, takes into account both the internal factors and add the policy effect, talent technology, meteorological disasters and external factors. This paper discussed the influence of meteorological disasters to agricultural economic. Meantimes scholars of agricultural economic growth, the selection of factors is not comprehensive, only select one or several factors, many factors is not taken into consideration, especially for meteorological disaster factors. the study is less, let alone use meteorological disaster factors for further analysis. This paper analyzed the factors which consider the more comprehensive is a big improvement.2. With panel data analysis, Because panel data not only reflect the data in a given period the law of each individual, but also describe changes over time for each individual rule, a collection of time series data and the common benefits of cross-sectional data, allowing the researchers to control the behavior of the individual differences in terms of access to the greater flexibility, and give researchers a large number of data samples, which also increase the degree of freedom and reduce collinearity among the explanatory variables, thereby improving the effectiveness of econometric models, this paper based on the convergence analysis of panel data models.3.based on analyzing China’s agricultural economic growth factors, some province draw lessons from Hunan to gain agricultural economy growth experience.Compared with the only analysis of China agricultural economic growth factors this comparative analysis is undoubtedly a great progress.