An Empirical Study Of The Effect Of China’s Export Credit Insurance On The Export Promotion

Export trade plays an essential role in the economic growth of our country. But since the outbreak of the financial crisis in2008, China’s export trade situation is not optimistic. How to protect exports steady and rapid development is a major test of our country after the global financial crisis. The export credit insurance provides security mechanisms for the receivables of export goods, services, technology and capital to help export enterprises to prevent exchange earnings risk and expand export trade effectively. In practice, whether the export credit insurance to promote export trade and how to promote is the issue that the thesis studies on.First, this thesis introduces the development of export credit insurance and carries on theoretical analysis on the export credit insurance to promote export trade. The theoretical analysis is that the export credit insurance to reduce the uncertainty of the export market and for export enterprises, especially enterprises in terms of risk aversion, and the insurance coverage will expand export trade. In theory, the export credit insurance can expand the export trade effectively.Second, through empirical comparison between the national level and the industry level, industry level, the national level and the provincial level, this thesis comes to the conclusion that the export credit insurance has a positive effect on the export trade. On the choice of research methods in comparative research, this thesis uses cointegration model and error correction model in the empirical research at the national level and the industry level, industry level comparative aspects. For analysis the role of the level of economic development in the promotion of export trade in export credit insurance and to consider pulling effect of the export trade of the export credit insurance clearer, this thesis introduces VAR model, panel VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition in the empirical research at national level and the provincial level.By empirical research, this thesis draws the following conclusions:First, through empirical contrast the national level and the industry level, export credit insurance has a significant positive effect the growth of China’s export trade, and there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between them. In the short term, the long-run equilibrium trend has a strong role in regulating the growth of the export trade. The coefficient of elasticity of the export value to the insurance value of the electromechanical and high-tech products is higher than the national coefficient, which reflects China’s export credit insurance companies support key industries and effects.Second, by the contrast between the industry level can be seen, the coefficient of elasticity of the export value to the insurance value of the electromechanical and high-tech products is higher than the coefficient of agricultural exports, the positive effect is more obvious, Which is further instructions that the export credit insurance plays an more obvious role in electromechanical and high-tech industries compared to other industries. Export credit insurance policy can contribute to the growth of exports, and optimize the structure of export product; and effectively promote technological progress, industrial upgrading and has important role of the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.Third, from the analysis of national level and provincial level, we can see that export credit insurance can improves country’s export trade. And the export credit insurance of Coastal economic circle plays an important role in promoting the growth of export trade.This study can make up for the lack of domestic research on the role of export credit insurance on export trade, and provide a new perspective for scholars to study the impact factors of the export trade. What’s more, this thesis comes to the role of export credit insurance to China’s export trade, and provides a theoretical basis for analysis of the relationship between China’s export trade, economic development and export credit insurance, which provides theoretical basis for the policy-making of the export trade.