Evaluation And Prediction Of Energy Consumed By The Three Major Industries In Bohai Rim

Energy is the “blood” of the national economy. It is directly related to thesustainable development of social economy and the competitiveness of the nation andregion. Along with the rapid development of Bohai Rim, energy consumption isbecoming larger and larger. The main components of total energy consumption arethree major industries’ energy consumption is. Energy will become the “bottleneck”of the further development of the three major industries in Bohai Rim. Therefore, it isnecessary to evaluate and forecast the energy consumption of the three majorindustries Bohai Rim.From the perspective of the relationship between the industry development andthe energy consumption, this paper uses the “decoupling” theory to analyze thedecoupling relationship between the three major industries development and theenergy consumption in Bohai Rim and evaluate the effect of the energy conservationof the three industries in Bohai Rim.Additionally, this paper uses LMDI factor decomposition model to decomposethe factors which influence the energy consumption of the three major industries inBohai Rim. In order to provide theoretical support to make the “decoupling” policies,this paper analyzes the contribution degree of the factors to the change of the threemajor industries in Bohai Rim.According to the analysis of the change in energy consumption of the threemajor industries in Bohai Rim, this paper establishes GM(1,1),a grey forecastingmodel, using the theory of gray systems. According to the principle of the trendextrapolation, this paper forecasts the energy consumption of the three majorindustries in Bohai Rim.Considering the change of the factors which influence the energy consumption ofthe three major industries in Bohai Rim, this paper uses scenario analysis, based onLMDI energy forecasting model, to set three scenarios: Business as Usual Scenario,Energy Saving Scenario, Strengthening Energy Saving Scenario. This paper analyzesthe energy consumption of three major industries in Bohai Rim in2020in differentscenarios. In addition, the paper analyzes the major influencing factors to providetheoretical support on current policymaking of the economic and energy.