The Research On Risk Analysis Of BOT Project Based On WBS-RBS

As a new project management model, BOT is widely applied infrastructure and more and more popular in lots of countries and areas. Meanwhile project companies hanker after this model because it can bring high benefit. But BOT project usually need large investment and long cycle, so BOT project are determined high risk. If don't carry on scientifically BOT project analysis and management, risks can not be controlled, and even ultimately lead to project failure. In order to acquiring rich and generous profit of project companies and gaining tax and public benefit of the project country government, it is very necessary to carry on BOT project risk analysis.BOT project risk analysis contains two parts: risk identification and risk estimation (risk evaluation and risk appraisal). These two parts are complete whole, complementary, indivisible, the lack of any part of the risk analysis is incomplete. Specifically, the project risk analysis is to identify risk factors for the project firstly and then make further detailed project risk evaluation and appraisal.From the perspective of BOT project companies, since BOT project risk factors complexity. First of all, the application of WBS-RBS method based on the core project management tool--WBS and RBS identifies from sources of risk level, summarizes BOT projects 6 major risk factors existed in different stages of BOT project: political risk, construction risk, operating risk, market and returns risk, financial risk, legal risk, and further broken down into 14 risk factors. Secondly, given the current problem of lack project risk quantify analysis, targeted different risk factors, trying to adjust the law CAPM and making sensitivity-fuzzy analysis method applied to BOT projects to risk assessment. These methods are detailed and stringent quantitative analysis for BOT projects conducted as the scientific basis of risk prevention. Risk analysis and risk prevention are closely related. From certain point of stress, risk analysis and evaluation include prevention component. Thus, a brief analysis of the preventive measures to avoid or reduce risk and put forward the risk management strategy proposed plan after risk assessment in BOT projects.Finally, one real case of BOT projects is analyzed about risk according to the...